The one scenario Max Verstappen could leave Red Bull for Mercedes: “If he knows that…”

Sky Sports F1 commentator David Croft has identified one scenario where he could see Max Verstappen leave Red Bull for Mercedes.

While Verstappen is under contract at Red Bull until 2028, his F1 future has been a hot topic.

Doubts surrounding his commitment to Red Bull emerged amid the Christian Horner scandal for his alleged inappropriate behaviour.

Attention has turned to on-track matters in recent weeks but that hasn’t stopped Toto Wolff from publicly trying to charm Verstappen.

Following the Chinese Grand Prix, Wolff suggested that there are “factors” which could result in Verstappen leaving Red Bull.

Horner fired back at Wolff for his comments, stating the Austrian should worry more about the performance of his car than the drivers.

Speaking on the latest episode of the Sky F1 podcast, Croft explained why he could see Verstappen joining Mercedes if there were signs the German manufacturer were set up to dominate in 2026 - like they did in 2014 when the new engine rules were introduced.

“I don’t think Max Verstappen is going to go to Mercedes,” he said. “I really don’t see Max leaving unless and here’s the caveat, unless he knows and how he knows and how anyone knows, I don’t know, that the Mercedes engine in 2026 is going to be like the Mercedes engine in 2014

“If he knows that, then he’s going to want to go. But otherwise, why give up a winning thing?

“And Red Bull are a winning thing at the moment and there are no guarantees from the outside that Mercedes will be that in 2026.”

Christian Hewgill appeared on the podcast alongside Croft and suggested that Verstappen is ‘keeping his cards close to his chest’ in case there’s more fallout from the Horner situation.

“I don’t think the issues that gave him that ambiguity in the first place have completely gone away,” he added. 

“It’s not like we can safely say that book is closed and done. That could rear its head again. It seems to have dipped a little bit in recent weeks. 

“That might not be the case. Max is therefore keeping his cards close to his chest as he’s said if Marko goes, I go. That is possibly why.”