After rare stability, is F1 set for the most manic ‘silly season’ ever?

Every single team kept the same driver line-ups for 2024 in what turned out to be an unprecedentedly stable market. The next 12 months could be a very different story, however, with more than half of the grid - 14 drivers to be precise - out of contract heading into 2025.

Only reigning world champion Max Verstappen, Mercedes pair Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, McLaren duo Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, and Valtteri Bottas are locked in until the end of 2025, or beyond.

Do Ferrari hold the key to the market? 

Ferrari arguably have the most to sort heading into the new year, with both their drivers’ contracts expiring. 

However, if reports from Italy are to be believed, Charles Leclerc has already reached agreement on a bumper five-year deal to extend his stay at Maranello to 2029. That would solve half of Ferrari’s problem.

The other quandary relates to Carlos Sainz. The only non-Red Bull driver to win a race in 2023 is also out of contract at the end of the season and is keen to secure a two-year extension. 

That, according to some reports, is a desire not necessarily shared by Ferrari. A one-year deal has been suggested by some outlets as being Ferrari’s preference. 

If Sainz does not get offered the stability he seeks, could it prompt him to look elsewhere, perhaps towards the Sauber-run, soon-to-be Audi project? The Spaniard has repeatedly distanced himself from such rumours and has reiterated his commitment to Ferrari. 

A change to Ferrari’s driver line-up - described by team principal Fred Vasseur as being the strongest on the grid - makes little sense and therefore a middle ground is likely to be met between both parties. 

Indeed, Vasseur appeared relaxed about Ferrari’s driver situation when he addressed the media at the team’s annual Christmas lunch. 

Red Bull’s dilemma - and ramifications for AlphaTauri 

While Verstappen is tied down until the end of 2028, Red Bull faces a dilemma over who partners the three-time world champion going forward. 

Sergio Perez’s inconsistent and often underwhelming performances have left his position at Red Bull in the spotlight, with no shortage of candidates vying for a seat that is set to become available in 2025. 

Daniel Ricciardo appears first in line to succeed Perez if Red Bull opt to replace the Mexican at any point this year, and such a move would open up a free seat at AlphaTauri. 

Ricciardo will be judged against teammate Yuki Tsunoda, who also wants to stake a claim for a drive with Red Bull in 2025.

Red Bull will likely have many applicants to choose from, and will surely have one eye on the likes of the impressive Lando Norris as a possible alternative option outside their own driver pool. 

Will Alonso - and Stroll - stay? 

With 42-year-old Fernando Alonso showing no signs of slowing down, one would imagine it would take a drastic change of fortunes at Aston Martin for the Spaniard not to extend his stay in the sport beyond the end of 2024. 

Aston Martin certainly want the two-time world champion to stay. When asked that very question, team principal Mike Krack replied: “I think I don’t have to answer that question. Absolutely.” 

Providing he still wants it, one Aston Martin seat has Alonso’s name on it. 

Meanwhile, Lance Stroll’s contract is completely unknown, but with his father owning the team, his continued stay has been a foregone conclusion in recent years. 

Stroll’s form in 2023 wasn’t the best, leading to questions about his motivation and desire to continue in F1. He laughed off suggestions he could quit F1, and Aston Martin have continued to publicly back the 25-year-old Canadian. 

What about the rest of the midfield 

Much of the ‘silly season’ excitement is likely to occur in F1’s midfield, where a potential merry-go-round of driver exchanges could take place.  

Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly are another pairing out of contract but there is no reason at this stage to suggest anything other than both of them renewing at Alpine. 

Things are less certain at Williams, Sauber and Haas. 

Alex Albon is thought to be on a long-term deal and, unless one of the big teams come swooping, he will continue to shine at Williams. For teammate Logan Sargeant, 2024 promises to be a huge year with the American needing to prove he is worthy of a longer stay on the grid after a difficult rookie campaign. 

Zhou Guanyu is another driver who finds himself under pressure heading into the new season. His long-term future remains very much up in the air with Audi’s influence on the Swiss outfit set to increase in the coming years. Sauber junior and F2 champion Theo Pourchaire will hope to throw his hat into the ring, while there will be plenty of current drivers on the market too. 

That leaves Haas, who currently field the experienced duo of Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hulkenberg. Recent comments made by team principal Guenther Steiner alluded to Haas possibly favouring a more youthful route for the future. Exciting Ferrari youngster Oliver Bearman, for example, could emerge as a contender.