F1 title permutations: How Max Verstappen can hit jackpot in Las Vegas

Max Verstappen is on the brink of winning the 2024 F1 world championship - a feat he can clinch as early as this weekend’s Las Vegas Grand Prix.

The Red Bull driver stands on the verge of becoming just the second driver in F1 history - after Sebastian Vettel between 2010 and 2013 - to win their first four world titles consecutively following his stunning fightback victory from 17th on the grid last time out in a wet and wild Sao Paulo Grand Prix.

Verstappen’s masterclass in Brazil extended his championship lead to 62 points over McLaren’s Lando Norris. A maximum total of 86 points are left up for grabs across the remaining three grand prix and single sprint race between now and 8 December.

Put simply, Verstappen will make it four world titles in a row at the first time of asking if he can leave Las Vegas with an advantage of 60 points or more over Norris.

The most straightforward scenarios that would see Verstappen crowned champion in Sin City are if he wins the race for the second year running, or if he finishes ahead of Norris. Either way, the title race would be over.

Verstappen will also be world champion if…

• If Norris is second and Verstappen finishes third with the fastest lap
• If Norris is third and Verstappen finishes fourth with the fastest lap
• If Norris is fourth without the fastest lap and Verstappen finishes fifth
• If Norris is fifth without the fastest lap and Verstappen finishes sixth
• If Norris is sixth without the fastest lap and Verstappen finishes seventh
• If Norris is seventh without the fastest lap and Verstappen finishes eighth
• If Norris is eighth without the fastest lap and Verstappen finishes ninth
• If Norris is ninth without the fastest lap or lower regardless of where Verstappen finishes

How the title race can go to Qatar…

For the title race to continue to at least Qatar, Norris must get the margin between himself and Verstappen down to 59 points - or outscore the Dutchman by a minimum of three points in other words. 

The best way Norris can do this would be by winning in Las Vegas as this would remove all other possible permutations.

However, even if Norris was to take it to the penultimate round of the season, the odds are stacked against the Briton.

Unless Verstappen scored lowly in Las Vegas - a rarity in F1 these days - he would most likely be in a position to seal the championship during the Saturday sprint race in Qatar for the second year running.

No one else can win the championship but the likes of Ferrari duo Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, the Mercedes pair of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, and Verstappen and Norris’s respective teammates Sergio Perez and Oscar Piastri, could yet play a role in determining where the title is won and lost.

What about the constructors’ championship?

While the destination of the drivers’ title is almost certain, the same cannot be said in the race to be crowned constructors’ champions.

McLaren lead the way with three races to go and are 36 points clear of Ferrari as they bid to claim a first world title since 2008 - and a first constructors’ triumph since 1998.

Reigning world champions Red Bull are not out of the picture either and could still defend their crown, providing they can successfully overturn a 49-point deficit to McLaren.

With 103 points left available, the constructors’ championship cannot be won in Las Vegas.