Mercedes expects F1 pecking order to change throughout 2022 season

F1 has introduced entirely new technical regulations for this year with simpler bodywork, a ground effect floor and a move to 18-inch tyres in a bid to level the playing field.

Despite many of the team describing the new rules as restrictive, aerodynamic concepts have varied up and down the field after seeing the cars in action for the first time during the Barcelona test.

Ferrari and McLaren impressed during the first test, while Mercedes and Red Bull were in the mix, and are expected to introduce a raft of upgrades for the Bahrain test next week.

Speaking in a new video on its YouTube channel, Mercedes High-Performance Powertrains boss Hywel Thomas believes that a team could start the season with the quickest car but drop down the pecking order as the development race occurs.

“My thoughts with it are that, if everyone's developed perhaps at a slightly different speed, and everyone's doing their work in the wind tunnel, it could be that the fastest car at the start of the year is nowhere near the fastest car at the end of the year,” Thomas said.

“As people bring upgrades, you might see quite a lot of jumping of who's the quickest car.”

One factor in play is the reduction of wind tunnel time for the top teams with each team’s development dictated by its position in the 2020 constructors’ championship.

As a result, Ferrari has enjoyed more time to develop its 2022 car than Mercedes and Red Bull, given its sixth-place finish in the 2020 standings.

Mercedes technical Mike Elliott expects most teams will be on a “strong development slope” as a result of the more restrictive development time.

“In conjunction with the regulation change, we have much fewer runs in the wind tunnel than we've ever had before, less runs in CFD,” Elliott explained. “So I suspect that most of the teams will find they're probably still on a strong development slope, and we'll see lots of upgrades as a result of that.

“I think the other thing is that because the cars are so new and so different, I suspect we'll also have the sort of reliability fixes that you need to put in place, and there will be a big chunk of work to put into that as well.”

With teams introducing upgrades at different times, Elliott conceded that it’s going to be even more difficult to judge the pecking order going into the season.

“I think it's going to be really difficult to tell from winter testing who's quickest,” Elliott added.

“It's just because I think, depending what people's upgrade strategy is, do people bring an upgrade to the second test? Do they bring an upgrade for the first race? And then, what's that order through the season? I think it's going to make quite a big difference.”