Is Honda’s 2025 MotoGP rookie stepping into an impossible situation?

Looking back on the entire four-stroke MotoGP era, Honda has fielded some top tier rookies. Casey Stoner stepped up to MotoGP with LCR on an RC211V in 2006, later returning to the HRC fold in 2011 to win his second world title after four years with Ducati.

In 2006 the factory Honda team promoted Dani Pedrosa, while two years later Andrea Dovizioso would make his debut on a Honda bike in a satellite surrounding. There was, of course, Marc Marquez in 2013 - and not much needs to be said about what he did for Honda over the next few years.

Honda hasn’t always hit the nail on the head, though. Stefan Bradl’s promotion in 2012 as reigning Moto2 champion didn’t yield much beyond a single podium in 2013. Jack Miller’s Moto3-to-MotoGP step didn’t really blossom on Honda machinery, though his 2016 win at Assen with Marc VDS proved with more perseverance HRC could have gained more out him.

Takaaki Nakagami, whose time as a racer in MotoGP is now over, also didn’t make as big of an impact as he should have in his time at LCR since his debut in 2018. Still podiumless, the Japanese rider has largely hung onto his ride for as long as he has because Honda couldn’t convince Ai Ogura to step up to MotoGP with it.

That may sound harsh, but the Idemitsu-backed side of the LCR garage is a set-up specifically made for an Asian rider - and ideally one from the Asia Talent Cup. Ogura fitted that bill entirely, but he’s put his faith in Aprilia instead and has signed a two-year Trackhouse deal. However, Somkiat Chantra is not a bad alternative.

Chantra won the Asia Talent Cup in 2016 before stepping over to the CEV Junior Moto3 championship for 2017. He bypassed the Moto3 World Championship entirely, save for a wildcard outing at his home Thailand Grand Prix in 2018, in which he was a fine ninth, before making a full-time GP debut in Moto2 with Honda Team Asia the year after.

Year one was ok, with a best of ninth at Buriram, on his way to 21st in the standings on 23 points. The 2020 season was worse, ninth in France being his best as he managed just 10 points. The 2021 campaign was better, with Chantra managing a career-best fifth in Austria and amassing 37 points.

But it was 2022 when he really kicked on. Missing the Qatar GP with injury, Chantra would take an historic first win for Thailand at the Indonesian GP. He was on the podium three more times that year, while a second win would follow in Japan in 2023 as he powered to sixth in the standings after a consistent season.

Comparing his Moto2 record to that of Nakagami’s before stepping up to MotoGP, the latter was a regular podium finisher but both are matched on having two wins. Thus, when Nakagami stepped up to MotoGP there was a reasonable expectation on his shoulders to do well.

While podium results haven’t materialised (and how much more gut-wrenching must that 2020 Teruel GP missed opportunity be now) Nakagami over the last couple of years has at least steered the troubled Honda ship. Particularly last year, with his Honda stablemates Marc Marquez, Alex Rins and Joan Mir plagued by injury, Nakagami repeatedly got his bike to the finish to help HRC get vital data.

In 2024, Nakagami isn’t exactly disgracing himself. He’s third-best Honda in the standings, but equal on points with Mir and just one behind team-mate Johann Zarco. In many respects, with Ogura going to Trackhouse, Nakagami should have been safe for 2025.

Are Honda right to back Chantra?

That isn’t the case, but is it the right move?

A Honda isn’t exactly the most sought-after bike in MotoGP right now, so the list of young riders willing to take that plunge isn’t long to begin with. That it’s the most uncompetitive package right now and confidence-sapping doesn’t lend itself to being the ideal place for Chantra to begin his MotoGP adaptation.

But he comes completely fresh to the bike, and so its peculiarities won’t dictate his riding style. He can adapt around it, rather than the other way around. That fresh perspective may be just what Honda needs.

To boot, the rest of the Honda stable in 2025 has experience of the bike. Mir has obviously ridden it since 2023, while Zarco and Luca Marini will have full seasons - and a boat load of tests - under their belt come next year. On top of this, Nakagami stays in the fold as an HRC development rider while Honda gains fresh perspective and experience in its test team in the form of Aleix Espargaro.

The onus, then, will not be on Chantra to help steer the bike. And having Espargaro watching over him will be no bad thing, either, given the young talents he’s helped nurture over the years. Job security will be offered to Chantra in the same way it was to Nakagami at LCR, which should keep the pressure off of the 25-year-old as he continues his adaptation to the RC213V.

His passport will also lend a hand here. Thailand is a big market for MotoGP. When the first pre-season test took place at the Buriram track in 2018, reportedly 30,000 fans turned out to watch the action. Testing is incredibly boring as a spectator sport, but the lust for MotoGP in that country superseded that.

Thailand will also host the opening round of the 2025 and 2026 seasons. While the Thai fans love MotoGP as a whole, they’ll love having their own premier class star to cheer on. For so long as there isn’t another top Thai talent working their way through the ranks, Chantra will find himself as something of a darling in Dorna’s eyes.

So, in theory, Chantra has a good platform to step onto in MotoGP even if the bike he will take over isn’t likely to be very competitive in 2025.

Arguably, given his record in Moto2 compared to some of his peers, perhaps Chantra over Nakagami doesn’t really make sense in Honda’s current position. And Nakagami has made a decent claim for himself to keep that ride, even if he’s not likely destined to scale great heights if the bike does grow more competitive. At least under his new deal as a Japan-based development rider he will get some wildcards.

Above all, though, why not take a punt on a rookie rider? After all, is that not the point of the Moto2/Moto3 system and the Talent Cups positioned on ‘the road to MotoGP’?

Are there better riders in Moto2 who deserve a shot over him? Absolutely, but sometimes circumstances don’t work out that way and it’s high time that is just accepted.

However, LCR isn’t getting a rider finishing outside of the points every weekend who is being gifted an opportunity just because of the flag he flies. Chantra is a proven multiple race winner and a consistent top 10 finisher. He’s earned a shot in the premier class.