What clues previous repeat MotoGP races offer about the 2024 Emilia Romagna GP

There’s no escaping the fact that MotoGP’s return to the Misano circuit for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix two weeks after staging the San Marino GP at the same venue is a bad look for the championship.

Originally, the weekend of 20-22 September was meant to see the second edition of the Indian GP staged after it made its debut on the calendar last year. Those plans were scuppered, officially, due to “operational considerations” and unsuitable weather conditions due to the extreme heat in the region at this time of year.

However, it’s thought the race organisers were actually in breach of their contract with Dorna for financial reasons. India is now being touted as slotting into the calendar next March.

The inaugural Kazakhstan GP, which was postponed from its June slot due to flooding of the region, was then drafted into Indian’s spot on the calendar. But, having been cancelled in 2023 due to the facility outside of Almati not being ready, this race was also axed.

With rumours of a repeat event in Qatar and even a return to Brno, MotoGP settled on a second race at Misano - reviving the Emilia Romagna GP, which hasn’t been held since 2021 during the second COVID-affected season.

It wasn’t until mid-July that the paddock knew where it would be this weekend just a few days before it needs to be on the island of Lombok for the Indonesian GP. In a post-COVID era, that kind of calendar disruption for events that already posed problems and raised suspicions from inception simply isn’t acceptable.

This will almost certainly be something Liberty Media, when its acquisition of an 86% majority of Dorna is completed at the end of this year, will look to stamp out going forward. After all, this is an organisation that announced the 2025 calendar for Formula 1 back in April - while MotoGP doesn’t have its schedule for next year ironed out yet in September.

Regardless of the messiness of the 2024 calendar, MotoGP is staying in Misano for another race… well, it’s technically returning, because the paddock had to be broken down and stashed nearby due to another event long-booked taking place at the circuit in the week between the San Marino and Emilia Romagna GPs.

The Emilia Romagna GP marks the first time since the 2021 season that a second grand prix has been staged on one track in the same campaign. This was something first done in 2020 at the height of the COVID pandemic, with five tracks staging 10 of the 14 grands prix that year. While the world opened up a little bit more in 2021, four tracks hosted eight rounds that year.

In 2020, all of those repeat events were staged back-to-back. In 2021, MotoGP’s two rounds in Portugal and Misano were separated by other events, while the Qatar and Austria ones were double-headers.

What impact will this have at Misano in 2024?

Often, events held at the same circuit tended to offer much closer contests across qualifying and at the front of races. This isn’t surprising, given every rider essentially entered the second event at a track armed to the teeth with data from the previous race.

Across the nine races that were held in 2020 and 2021 on a track for a second time, six of them saw the overall time reduced from the previous grand prix. In six, the gap covering the top 10 in qualifying shrunk - and considerably, as you can see from the table below.

Qualifying top 10 gap at repeat venues

As you can see from the above table, Misano doesn’t feature from 2021. That’s largely down to the fact the San Marino GP took place in September and the Emilia Romagna GP in October, so cooler conditions had an impact.

The 2021 San Marino GP saw the top 10 in qualifying covered by 1.066s, which swelled to 1.642s for the Emilia Romagna GP - though this is down to the weather rather than any significant drop in dry pace. The San Marino GP was also completed in 41m48.305s, while the Emilia Romagna GP was slightly slower at 41m52.830s.

In theory, the 2024 Emilia Romagna should be closer in terms of qualifying and the battle at the front should remain as tight as it was last time at the San Marino GP. However, in all but two events across 2020 and 2021 did the gap covering the top 10 at the end of a race shrink. But given how much weather conditions played a part in last weekend’s Misano race, the field spread will be much closer this week.

In terms of form guide, the events of those repeat races in 2020 and 2021 highlight just how much the balance of power in MotoGP has shifted in the ensuing years.

Yamaha is the most successful manufacturer in this area, with it winning five times on the second visit to a track. In 2020, Fabio Quartararo completed the Jerez double with victory in the Andalucian GP; Maverick Vinales won the Emilia Romagna GP, while two of Franco Morbidelli’s three grand prix victories came at the Teruel and Valencia GPs. In 2021, Quartararo was victorious at the Doha GP.

KTM is next on that list with two wins courtesy of Miguel Oliveira at the 2020 Styrian GP for Tech3 and Brad Binder with his heroic ride to victory in the wet Austrian GP of 2021 on slick tyres. Ducati and Honda share the remaining wins, with Francesco Bagnaia victorious at the 2021 Algarve GP and Marc Marquez securing his final Honda triumph in that year’s Emilia Romagna GP.

Looking ahead to this weekend’s edition of the Emilia Romagna GP, it’s hard not to view it as a pivotal moment in the 2024 season. It begins a triple-header that will take in Indonesia and then Japan, and the title battle is finely poised ahead of it.

After acing the sprint at the San Marino GP, Jorge Martin’s strategic gaffe in the flag-to-flag grand prix meant his championship lead shrunk from 26 points to just seven over Bagnaia - who was second in both contests.

Riding below full fitness following his tangle with Alex Marquez at the Aragon GP, Bagnaia said in Ducati’s preview for the Emilia Romagna GP that he is now fully fit. Having claimed pole with a new lap record at the San Marino GP, Martin will find a much tougher Bagnaia to contend with.

But after his second win of the 2024 season, Marquez looms menacingly in the background now. Just 53 points adrift of Martin, momentum is very much with the Gresini rider. Winning the previous Emilia Romagna GP means nothing coming into this year’s edition, but what is significant is this being the first time since Qatar that Marquez has raced on a track with prior Ducati experience.

Having found the bike feeling he had at the Red Bull Ring when he hit the track at Misano for the San Marino GP, he’ll have his first real chance this season to really hone in on his weak points relative to his Ducati rivals.

Enea Bastianini has always reached the podium at whatever Misano grand prix he has competed in since stepping up to MotoGP. At the 2021 Emilia Romagna GP, he snatched third from Quartararo - who was crowned champion that race - aboard a year-old Avintia-run Ducati.

A gamble to run the soft tyre in the San Marino GP last time out didn’t quite pay off, but he still had strong pace on his way to third. And should conditions warrant it, his race distance knowledge of that tyre could come in handy this weekend. Fellow Ducati rider Morbidelli put in his best showing of the year at the San Marino GP and gets a second shot to finish the job, after crashing out of the podium places in the main race.

Much like Marquez, KTM’s Pedro Acosta comes to a track he has prior bike knowledge of. When he did so in Qatar, he ran inside the podium battle before fading down the order. That was his maiden grand prix, and his pace throughout the San Marino GP was Ducati-threatening. Armed with more data from the post-race test, Acosta could be a real dark horse.

For those who struggled first time around, it’s a chance to right some wrongs and potentially come away with something strong. That will be something Aprilia hopes rings true after its recent struggles, while a strong San Marino GP for Quartararo and Yamaha provided a platform for some sustained good results as it continues to haul itself up the grid.