Lap time analysis hints Marc Marquez won’t win again in Misano

After a damp start to the day at Misano for the second Friday in two weeks at the circuit, the picture at the end of Practice at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix took on a familiar look.

Having topped San Marino GP practice, Francesco Bagnaia did the same on Friday at the Emilia Romagna GP with a new lap record of 1m30.286s to hold a reasonably chunky gap of 0.198s over championship leader Jorge Martin.

The Pramac rider suffered a crash at the end of second practice, but comfortably secured a place directly in Q2. Behind this pair came Marc Marquez, winner of the last two grands prix, on his Gresini Ducati with a 1m30.585s, while Enea Bastianini on the sister factory team Desmosedici was fourth on a 1m30.607s.

Splitting the top four from the rest was a pretty sizable gap of 0.279s, with Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo the nearest challenger to MotoGP 2024’s ‘big four’.

Not since 2021 has MotoGP run two races at the same circuit in a season. Traditionally, the second edition race at a track saw things tighten up. But, going off of Friday practice at the 2024 Emilia Romagna GP, that doesn’t look like being the case.

In fact, what’s currently being predicted is something of a three-tier race: Bagnaia versus Martin for the win; Marquez versus Bastianini for the final podium spot; the race of the rest.

Both Bagnaia and Martin looked superb on race pace on Friday at Misano. Both riders focused on the medium rear, which was the race option at the San Marino GP. Despite cooler conditions expected for this Sunday’s grand prix, that will likely remain the favourite providing the asphalt doesn’t get too cold.

Bagnaia put 13 laps on his medium rear tyre, setting a best of 1m30.902s on the final tour that option was used for. Across a six-lap average (with cancelled times and non-representative laps removed), Bagnaia’s pace was at 1m31.210s.

Martin put 11 laps on a medium rear, with his fastest effort a 1m30.844s on the 11th tour. Across a six-lap average once adjusted for unrepresentative times, Martin’s pace stood at 1m31.306s. It is a shade slower than what Bagnaia put up, but across a 27-lap grand prix distance they are virtually joined at the hip.

Both riders, unsurprisingly, were very happy with their days when they spoke to the media at Misano on Friday evening. As Marc Marquez pointed out, when grip conditions are better then the championship’s top two take a step forward from the rest - though, Bagnaia later said he "felt slow" because "the rear grip and also the front grip wasn't the best". 

With just seven points splitting Martin and Bagnaia after the San Marino GP, this weekend is critical for both in taking momentum back in the title battle at the start of this triple-header that also includes Indonesia and Japan.

As we saw at the first Misano race, track position proved crucial. Though Bagnaia started on pole, Martin jumped him off the line from fourth in the sprint. Bagnaia could do nothing in the turbulent air of the Pramac bike to overtake. Bagnaia was able to hold the lead in the early portion of the grand prix and only lost out to Marquez when conditions changed.

With Bagnaia clearly picking up where he left off in terms of one-lap speed - and this time fully fit, having now recovered from injuries he suffered at Aragon - and matching it with strong long run pace, his 100th MotoGP grand prix could well be a memorable one, not least as he looks to be the one who notches up Ducati’s century of victories.

Hat-trick of wins unlikely for Marquez

Friday wasn’t an easy one for Marquez. Feeling “something strange” with his GP23 early in the second session, it somewhat changed his run plan. But the Gresini rider - the winner of MotoGP’s last Emilia Romagna GP in 2021 - managed 14 laps on a medium rear tyre.

His best was a 1m31.292s on his 13th lap, while his average pace worked out at 1m31.583s. Stretched out across grand prix distance, and that’s a 10.071s margin to Bagnaia.

While the wonder duo of Marquez and crew chief Frankie Carchedi have been able to make big gains come Sundays throughout 2024, Marquez for now looks like a first hat-trick of wins since 2019 will be a remote possibility.

His fight looks like it will be with Bastianini. The Italian put 18 laps on a medium rear tyre, the best a 1m31.472s on his 17th tour. His average pace was around the 1m31.649s mark, though he admitted that he was lacking confidence through the left corners on the medium rubber.

On average pace, there were two riders who were quicker than Marquez and Bastianini. Tech3 GASGAS rookie Pedro Acosta’s pace worked out at 1m31.352s, while VR46 Ducati’s Marco Bezzecchi managed 1m31.541s. 

But both did their work on the soft rear, while Acosta’s average was only three representative laps. Perhaps both could cause some frustrations in qualifying and gain some good track position, but muscling in on the podium battle appears a stretch.

Quartararo’s impressive run to fifth on the Yamaha was backed up by some strong race pace. Doing 14 laps on a medium rear, Quartararo’s fastest effort was 1m31.581s while his average pace worked out at 1m31.664s. 

His pace later in the tyre’s life wasn’t quite as strong as those ahead of him on the timesheets, but top five looks like a legitimate target for the Frenchman.

After a strong San Marino weekend and a solid post-race test, Quartararo appeared to have two of Yamaha’s new chassis on Friday. Given the Yamaha’s difficulties in overtaking, he will be under constant threat from behind and making progress will be extremely difficult even if he can qualify well.

Friday at the Emilia Romagna GP hasn’t suggested a second visit to Misano will yield a thrilling group battle as we might have expected. But the prospect of a head-to-head between Bagnaia and Martin with so much on the line in terms of the championship battle is mouthwatering…