Analysis: The weapon Marc Marquez can use to overturn Jorge Martin’s advantage

From one extreme to the other. That’s very much the way MotoGP has gone over the past five days as it jetted out of the bitter chills of Phillip Island to the furnace of Buriram: insert some cliched ‘out of the frying pan, into the fire’ statement to show how this reflects the 2024 MotoGP title battle…

But with 20 points splitting Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia with just 111 left on the table, every session becomes crucial with three rounds - including this weekend’s Thai Grand Prix - to run before the curtain comes down on the season.

And on Friday at Buriram, neither Martin nor Bagnaia looked particularly happy with life on their GP24s. Both looked scrappy on track at points of the hour-long Practice, while intense debriefs were a constant in their respective garages.

Bagnaia’s issues stemmed from some set-up experiments that didn’t really pan out, forcing his factory Ducati team to revert to what he was using at the start of the session to ensure he was competitive in the time attack phase.

That is almost certainly a legacy of the Australian GP weekend, in which a lack of track time on the Friday due to poor weather meant Bagnaia went in the wrong direction for Saturday in terms of set-up and spent the rest of the round chasing his tail.

Martin’s woes largely seemed to stem from him feeling unhappy on the hard rear tyre he tried midway through the session, which was well-worn and had grand prix distance on it by the time he was done.

A psychologist would have a field day in the MotoGP paddock during championship crunch time. Both Bagnaia and Martin insist nothing has changed in the way they approach weekends, and every rounds is as important as each other. Martin’s declarations after Friday’s running suggest - as we’ve always been able to tell through the thin veil that masks riders - quite the opposite.

“I am happy to be competitive. This week, I was nervous,” Martin told the media, including Crash.net, on Friday. “In my mind I was anticipating what was to come. But, as soon as I got on the track and it went okay, the ghosts went away. Pecco and Marc are also strong so it will be a challenging weekend, but I’m in the fight.”

So they’ve both gotten through day one of a crucial Thai GP without any major dramas and safely into Q2. And a step forward from the GP24s on Saturday is more than likely, as was the case last weekend.

Marquez, for the second week in a row, ended Friday’s running fastest of all. The Gresini rider looked immensely comfortable on his GP23, setting a new lap record of 1m29.165s in second practice to lead the way.

The GP23 is easier to get into the ball park from Friday because it’s an old bike with relevant data to fall back on from the previous year. Marquez is now also at a point in his adaptation to the Ducati that he is no longer “in delay”, as he put it a few months ago, when he hits a race track on a Friday.

Last week in Australia, Ducati boss Davide Tardozzi expected the GP24s to be able to catch Marquez. But Marquez’s race pace was the best of the bunch on Friday and he went on to beat Martin in the grand prix, and comprehensively trounce Bagnaia. 

Looking into the long run pace from Friday in Thailand, there is reason to believe that Marquez’s expectations that the GP24s will catch him on Saturday are astute.

He worked exclusively with the medium rear tyre in the second session on Friday at Buriram, putting 16 laps on one across three runs. At the end of those 16 laps he was lapping at 1m31.071s, while his average (nine laps with unrepresentative and cancelled laps removed) was 1m30.790s.

Martin only put 11 laps on a medium rear, but his pace was better. At an eight-lap average, the Pramac rider was at 1m30.628s. Interestingly, Martin also did some work on the hard rubber, which was the race option for last year’s Thai Grand Prix - which the Spaniard won, beating Bagnaia and KTM’s Brad Binder in a thriller.

At this stage, both medium and hard are viable race options for both races, according to Michelin. The medium offers better grip but isn’t as consistent as the hard, says Michelin motorsport boss Piero Taramasso.

It was during his hard tyre running that Martin wasn’t particularly happy, but he still said “I felt ok” on it and his pace reflected that. He put in a best of 1m30.847s when the tyre had 20 laps on it, and on its final tour he clocked a 1m31.565. On the last lap of the 2023 Thai GP on a hard tyre, Martin posted a 1m31.866s.

Enea Bastianini was third-fastest on the leading factory team Ducati, but his pace average on the medium rubber worked out at 1m30.920s as the Italian struggled for braking performance on Friday. 

Marquez, nevertheless, feels Bastianini’s strong start to a weekend is something of a warning that he will factor into the equation in the races.

Bagnaia’s set-up issues meant he was fourth overall, though his long run pace on the medium was slightly better than Bastianini’s at 1m30.852s. Currently, that puts him behind Martin and Marquez based on this metric, but the true potential of the double world champion remains a question mark after his fragmented afternoon.

Martin, for all his nerves and discomfort on the hard tyre, ends Friday as the rider to beat. But, as he pointed out, his battle in Thailand is extremely complicated.

He put up a spirited defence against Marquez in Australia, but he was somewhat restrained by his championship situation. That is something that will follow him - and Bagnaia - through to the point when the championship is decided. 

Marquez and Bastianini, while mathematically in the frame, have nothing but personal pride and some win bonuses to consider in the final three grands prix.

Martin was on the receiving end of Bastianini aggression at Misano, and again last week from Marquez. And the former is something that is still sour for him.

“The Misano move was incorrect. Those five points are mine,” Martin said. “He went off track then hit me completely out of the corner. Marc’s move was aggressive, for sure. But he didn’t touch me so I feel like it’s okay. He played his cards and did an amazing race.”

Marquez already got some unintelligent stick during the week for allegedly ‘interfering’ in the championship battle at Phillip Island. It’s a broken record with 2015 carved into the wax, and something Marquez touched on in Thursday’s press conference, saying he “cannot control” where he ends up in a race relative to a title contender.

In Thailand, he feels he needs to find a bit of speed on the two straights out of Turn 1 and Turn 3, but thinks that will come with a fresh engine being fitted to his GP23 this evening. 

If he can keep up his momentum from Friday, Australia proved just what effect he has when he is the one making the difference over the bike’s limitations.

Martin says he will try to lead from the front if he can in the races, but knows he needs to box clever, and clearly that’s something his Pramac team has instilled in him.

“For sure, it’s one of the most important weekends of the year,” Pramac team boss Gino Borsoi said on Friday during practice. “The last three weekends are important for us. 

"So, we need to continue like this, in the same way as Australia, concentrate on not making any mistakes, different options to Pecco. Just try to follow Pecco and not try to win the race, because a win is nice. But just bring back the bike with a good result and that’s it.”

What gains Bagnaia and Bastianini can make on Saturday will play a major part in how the rest of the weekend pans out. But the delicate title situation is an opportunity for Marquez - and Bastianini, if he can fix his braking issues - to exploit and one in which Martin most of all must remain fixed on the bigger picture.