Can Toprak Razgatlioglu win the 2025 WorldSBK title at Estoril?

Toprak Razgatlioglu enters this weekend’s (10–12 October) Estoril WorldSBK with a mathematical shot at the title, but how can he confirm himself as a three-time World Superbike Champion before the final round in Jerez?

After Race 1 in Estoril, Razgatlioglu has extended his lead over second-placed Nicolo Bulega by a further five points, so the gap between them now stands at 41 points.

With Race 1 now ticked off, there are now also only 99 points available; after the Superpole Race on Sunday morning there will be 87 remaining.

But this makes wrapping the title up in the Estoril Superpole Race a mathematical impossibility for Razgatlioglu, whose maximum gap after the 10-lapper is 53 points - assuming he wins and Bulega doesn't score.

The BMW rider can only wrap up the 2025 title this weekend in Race 2, then, regardless of what happens on Sunday morning.

The simple fact, then, is that Razgatlioglu must end this weekend's Estoril Round with a 62-point lead over Nicolo Bulega, who - with his current tally of 10 wins - cannot match Razgatlioglu's current season-total of 20 race wins with only five races remaining.

That means Razgatlioglu must find 21 points over Bulega in Sunday's two races in Estoril in order to be crowned champion. Given they've filled the top-two positions in all but three races they've both finished this year - and in all but six of the 31 races run this year in all - that seems an implausibility, especially considering Bulega's mammoth 12-second buffer to Alvaro Bautista in Race 1.

While it is difficult to see Razgatlioglu winning the title in Estoril Race 2, it is also out of Bulega's hands whether Razgatlioglu can be denied a World Superbike 'match point' on Sunday afternoon in Portugal. 

Since Razgatlioglu can only score a maximum 25 points in Race 2, his advantage in the standings over Bulega must not fall below 37 after the Superpole Race in order to maintain Race 2 as a first opportunity to clinch the title for Razgatlioglu. A gap of 36 points or fewer between them after the 10-lap race would guarantee the title battle goes to Jerez.

However, this would require Bulega to out-score Razgatlioglu by at least five points in the Superpole Race.

This means that if Bulega wins the Superpole Race, Razgatlioglu would lose his mathematical shot at the title in Race 2 if he finished third or lower. 

If Bulega finished the Superpole Race second, he would need Razgatlioglu to finish no better than sixth; P3 for Bulega would require a finish of eighth or lower for Razgatlioglu to cancel his Race 2 chance; fourth for the Italian would mean a finish of ninth or lower for Bulega to guarantee himself a shot in Jerez; fifth for Bulega would mean the Italian would rely on Razgatlioglu not scoring in the Superpole Race to prevent a Race 2 'match point'; and sixth for the Ducati man would simply not be enough to prevent that Race 2 chance for Razgatlioglu.

Ultimately, then, not a colossal amount riding on the Estoril Superpole Race directly, but its result could influence the status of Race 2 as a potential title decider.