Rating the F1 chances of Alpine's leading Academy trio

With three of its proteges lining up on the Formula 2 grid this year, Alpine appears closer than ever to achieving its goal of promoting one of its Academy talents into Formula 1.

Guanyu Zhou, Christian Lundgaard and Oscar Piastri will all contest the F2 championship in 2021, leaving them tantalisingly close to earning a dream shot to race in F1.  

The newly-named Alpine squad overlooked its leading Academy prospects for a 2021 F1 seat when it opted to re-sign two-time world champion Fernando Alonso to partner Esteban Ocon for the upcoming season, but the French manufacturer remains committed to promoting from within.

39-year-old Alonso has agreed an initial two-year deal, while Ocon is entering the final year of his original Renault contract, so an F1 promotion for one of Alpine’s juniors in either 2022 or 2023 is very much on the cards if all the stars line up.

“From our side, timing is everything,” Alpine programme director Mia Sharizman told media including Crash.net at the launch of the rebranded Academy on Wednesday. “We all know timing is everything in terms of moving up the ladder.

“We are at the stage where we have three drivers in Formula 2 who are capable of challenging for the title. And yes, we have been looking and anticipating it [an F1 move].

“It obviously started this year, to place them [in F1 in the future]. It’s something that I can’t divulge much more but yes, obviously we have our own team, our own seat that we can control, that we are looking at for our Formula 2 drivers.

“And at the same time, we are looking to Formula 1 as a general market.”

So where do each of the leading trio stand ahead of a potential breakthrough year, and what are their chances of smashing through the glass ceiling to F1? 

Guanyu Zhou 

Zhou is the most senior of Alpine’s F2 drivers (and has the most F1 testing experience) as he heads into his third full season in the series with UNI-Virtuosi. After struggling to feature in the championship battle last season on his way to finishing sixth in the standings, Zhou is expected to fight for the F2 title this year. 

The 21-year-old picked up a maiden victory in the Sochi sprint race last year but his 2020 campaign was dogged by both technical issues and inconsistent patches. 

Zhou is arguably under the most pressure to achieve success in 2021, particularly considering the weight of expectation coming from his home country to become the first-ever Chinese F1 driver, a quest Sharizman described as a “one in a generational project”.

A top-three finish in the championship is the absolute minimum required for Zhou to achieve the necessary superlicence points needed to make the step up to F1, but with a cleaner season, he can realise his full potential and mount a title challenge.

Zhou needs to gain some 'bouncebackability' to be able to overcome difficult periods that at times he allowed to affect his form last year. 

If he can do that, with support from a strong team that has demonstrated its ability to fight at the front with back-to-back runner-up finishes in the championship, then Zhou will have the tools he needs to succeed, potentially opening the door to F1.

What Zhou said about his F1 chances:

“Firstly you need to get the super licence points, so that is definitely the target this year, as well as trying to win the title. Finishing in the top three will be enough for my super licence points and once you have that, the door is open. I’m pretty confident that if I can do a great season and show my full potential, what I am capable of doing, then I think I will have a good chance. But we don’t have many spare seats per year so you really have to have the luck while the door is open.” 

Christian Lundgaard

For the first time in his career, Lundgaard has continuity as he prepares to embark on his second full campaign in F2, sticking with French outfit ART Grand Prix.

The Dane has enjoyed a remarkable rise up the single-seater ladder since winning the SMP F4 and Spanish F4 Championships in 2017, progressing through the Formula Renault series ranks, FIA Formula 3 and up to F2 in just three years. 

Described as a “huge talent” by ART team boss Sebastien Philipe, expectations are high for Lundgaard in his second year in the series after impressing in his rookie campaign with two victories. 

The 19-year-old made a rapid start to life in F2 and spent much of the season inside the top three in the championship until his campaign somewhat fell away towards the end, as he slipped down to seventh after managing just one points finish across the last six races.

Having proved he is ultra-competitive and fast out of the blocks, Lundgaard needs to target greater consistency if he is to mount a sustained title bid in 2021. Successfully refining his already strong pace and racecraft should see him become a genuine championship contender with a strong package beneath him at an ART squad that has bred many champions in the past.

Aware that improvements are needed, Lundgaard would significantly enhance his hopes of landing an F1 seat if he were to outperform his fellow Alpine stablemates.

What Lundgaard said about his F1 chances: 

“For me, the focus will be on F2 this year and what’s ahead will stay ahead. We all share the same thoughts on that at the moment but I think once we get through the season and see how it goes, and obviously, at that point, we will probably need to take a decision on the future. If it’s for the main goal, for F1, it all depends on the results and my improvements. I would say it’s too early to tell what it will bring but for sure if the opportunity comes, I will make sure that I will be ready for it. We didn’t win last year, so we need to win this year.”

Oscar Piastri 

Entering his second year with the Alpine Academy, Reigning F3 champion Piastri is a newcomer to the F2 scene but not his team as he once again links up with formidable Italian giants Prema, where Ferrari junior and fellow F1 hopeful Robert Shwartzman will provide the Australian with a strong benchmark for his rookie season.

Despite initially planning to be in F3 for two years, Piastri made an instant impact by winning his debut race in Austria. A further victory in Spain and a remarkably consistent season ended up putting the 19-year-old in contention for the title, which he wrapped up during a dramatic finale at Mugello, where Piastri maintained a calm head as he resisted a late challenge from Theo Pourchaire to seal the crown.

Piastri goes into 2021 with the lowest expectations from Alpine. His foray into F2 is very much considered to be a two-year programme, but that same mindset didn’t stop Piastri from excelling in his rookie F3 campaign. F2 is another beast altogether - with Piastri facing new experiences with pit stops and a revised format - but he is fully aware of the challenge that awaits him.

A repeat of his rookie F3 title exploits - and a third championship triumph on the trot - would surely fast-track him to the front of the queue for an F1 seat.

What Piastri said about his F1 chances: 

“I’m not really putting any pressure on myself to achieve anything extraordinary in my first year. I’m trying to get to F1, so my expectations of myself are going to be pushing equally as hard as Alpine’s, if not harder. My own expectations and goals are to get to F1, regardless of what Alpine expects from me and wants me to achieve. At the end of the day, I am trying to get to F1, so it’s in both of our best interests to do as well as possible.”