Can Mercedes outsmart Red Bull? What to look out for in the F1 Styrian GP

Here's what to look out for in Formula 1's 2021 Styrian Grand Prix…

Mercedes’ chance to outsmart Red Bull

Red Bull deservedly received a lot of plaudits after the French Grand Prix for its aggressive two-stop strategy that allowed Verstappen to claim his third victory of the season, overtaking title rival Hamilton on track, on the penultimate lap.

After a difficult run of races, it’s a chance for Mercedes and Hamilton to bounce back and show that it still can function as a world championship-winning unit - something Toto Wolff doesn’t believe it has been doing in recent grands prix.

With Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas detached slightly due to McLaren’s Lando Norris sitting in third, the top two may be able to get away, leaving F1’s leading protagonists to battle it out for the win at the front of the field. 

Hamilton has already acknowledged Red Bull’s superior straight-line speed advantage, suggesting that overtaking Verstappen on track is unlikely.

“Generally they had a quarter of a second on us all weekend, and I think we have managed to eke closer in qualifying but in race trim yesterday, they were 0.25 ahead of us most of the time,” Hamilton said after qualifying. 

“It will be interesting to see if we can manage it, I don’t think we have the raw pace to overtake them, that’s for sure, but we might just be able to keep up.”

We’ve seen many times this season that given the close performance between the two cars, strategy will play a decisive role.

Mercedes’ switch to a two-stop in Barcelona allowed Hamilton to breeze past to win, while an aggressive undercut in the Bahrain opener gave the seven-time champion important track position, ultimately holding on to take the victory.

Many expect it to be a comfortable one-stop strategy but as previously mentioned, with the stakes so high, more risks are taken.

Mercedes needs to demonstrate that it can take the fight to Red Bull and out-smarting it on race day would be a timely reminder. 

Norris’ podium chances

Lando Norris continued his spectacular start to 2021 with another breathtaking qualifying lap.

Norris will start this afternoon’s race from third on the grid, moving up a place thanks to Bottas’ grid penalty.

Remarkably, Norris has finished in the top five in six of the first seven races, leaving him fourth in the drivers’ championship. 

His consistency but flat-out raw speed has made him one of F1’s star performers alongside Verstappen, but how realistic is Norris finishing on the podium for the third time in 2021?

Norris will have to contend with Sergio Perez and Bottas just behind, with the Finn starting on the more durable, medium compound.

The good news for the young Brit is McLaren’s straight-line speed this weekend which will make it tricky for the aforementioned two to overtake.

Perez’s best chance to get past will be at the start, while Bottas has often shown hesitancy when overtaking throughout his time with Mercedes - something Norris can take advantage of.

In his own words, Norris expects Perez and Bottas to breeze by, but given his recent form, I wouldn’t rule him out of another rostrum appearance, especially if the heavens open.

Russell’s golden chance

George Russell continued his 100% streak of progressing into Q2 at every qualifying session in 2021 as ‘Mr Saturday’ impressed once again.

Russell narrowly missed out on a spot in Q3 by just 0.008s, which would have been Williams’ first Q3 appearance since 2018. 

Thanks to Yuki Tsunoda’s grid penalty, Russell will start inside the top ten for the first time in his Williams career, making it the golden chance for the Mercedes-backed driver to finally score for the Grove-based outfit.

Russell has been close in the past, running inside the top ten at Imola last year before crashing out under the Safety Car, while a poor restart at Mugello dropped him out of the points when he had been running inside the points for much of it.

The key for Russell will be to make a good start from tenth. At Paul Ricard, he dropped behind teammate Nicholas Latifi and spent over 20 laps behind his teammate, something he can’t afford a repeat of later today.

There’s no doubting Russell’s talents and ability, but if he truly is worthy of a Mercedes drive in 2022, a points finish would surely brush away the remaining doubters.

The looming threat of rain

Rain has been in the air since the start of the weekend in Austria but F1’s three practice sessions and qualifying session remained unaffected. 

Situated in the Styrian hills, when it rains it pours, and with potential thunderstorms forecast, Sunday’s Styrian GP could be a memorable one. 

There hasn’t been a wet race at the Red Bull Ring since it returned to the F1 calendar in 2014, although the 2016 and 2020 (Styrian) qualifying sessions were rain-affected - and on both occasions, Hamilton stormed to pole position. 

A wet race could play into the hands of Mercedes given that it is running more wing and thus more downforce, although Red Bull has consistently been able to get its tyres up to temperature faster than most.

Hamilton’s wet weather record is exemplary, storming to pole in last year’s Styrian GP by a whopping 1.2s.

If rain falls ahead of the race and it dries out in time for lights out, the rubber laid down on the track will be washed away meaning it will be a ‘green track’ - this is what happened last time out in France and could lead to extra tyre wear or graining, opening up potentially more strategic options.

Let’s see what the weather has in store for us.