Crash debates: Should Mercedes rethink its 2022 F1 development plan?

Lewis Hamilton was powerless to prevent Verstappen storming to a commanding fourth win of the season and Red Bull’s fourth consecutive victory as he and Mercedes saw their championship deficits widen further in Austria. 

With a second race coming up at the Red Bull Ring next weekend, the chances are that the gap is only going to get bigger, putting Verstappen and Red Bull in a position of control in both world championships. 

A somewhat dejected Hamilton admitted after the race that Mercedes needs an “upgrade of some sort” to prevent Red Bull from running away in the title race, but Mercedes has no plans to change its development plan.  

But is Mercedes’ 2022-centric tactic the right way to go, or will it regret its decision not to develop its 2021 car?

Here are the verdicts of our F1 writers…

Mercedes is correct to look the bigger picture - providing it gets it right 

From the outside, you would be forgiven for thinking Mercedes is sacrificing the 2021 F1 season by sticking to its resource plan for 2022.

Next year’s rules revolution is providing the teams with their biggest challenge since the V6 hybrid era began in 2014, resulting in a fine balancing act of splitting development between 2021 and 2022. 

Mercedes has to consider additional caveats including the introduction of the budget gap and a new sliding scale of restrictions on permitted development. 

There is genuine concern that failure to get the 2022 regulation overhaul right could end up setting teams back for years to come and Mercedes is determined to make sure that doesn’t happen. 

The German marquee is looking at the bigger picture and its rational approach is understandable. After all, it was the same philosophy that ultimately set up a seven-year run of domination through the V6 era. 

While Red Bull is in the ascendancy and very much looking like title favourites at this stage, there are still 15 races to go and Mercedes may yet end up winning both world championships.

Mercedes insists it has not written off this year and while it will not be bringing a constant flow of updates like Red Bull, the reigning world champions will instead be working hard to squeeze more performance out of the set-up of the car and the tyres. 

Unlocking the true potential of the W12 could see the balance of power shift back towards Mercedes and if it were to somehow  make it eight world championship doubles in a row, it’s decision will look very smart indeed. 

However, should Mercedes go on to lose both world championships this year and then fail to come out of the blocks fast in 2022, questions will be rightly asked. 

Lewis Larkam

There’s no guarantee Mercedes delivers in 2022

Mercedes’ decision to seemingly give up on 2021 may prove to be a masterstroke with the 2022 regulation change the biggest since 2014.

With Verstappen and Red Bull in unstoppable form, Mercedes is fighting a losing battle. Nailing the 2022 regulations will be key - doing so may lead to another dynasty of dominance, but there’s no guarantee.

BMW’s Robert Kubica was leading the 2008 drivers’ championship following his maiden victory at the Canadian Grand Prix. The Pole was in the fight with Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa until BMW decided to switch its focus to 2009 - where F1 would undergo a significant makeover.

Kubica dropped to fourth in the championship and the following year didn’t prove fruitful at all as BMW, dropped to sixth in the constructors’ championship while Kubica himself classified 14th overall.

The decision to give up on 2008 was costly as BMW pulled out of the sport at the end of 2009.

Granted, Mercedes is in a different situation given what it has achieved and the year-on-year success it has enjoyed but there’s still lessons to be learned.

In 2009, there was a loophole with the double diffuser only Brawn, Toyota and Williams ran at the start of the season leaving McLaren, Ferrari, Renault and BMW - the top four teams from 2008, fairly uncompetitive at the start of the season.

New regulations tend to result in loopholes and varying degrees of performance - Mercedes could miss a trick and be left to catch up despite its focus on next year.

While Mercedes has fared well with recent regulation changes, winning after F1's shake-ups in 2014 and 2017, it often has relied on a significant engine advantage rather than a superior chassis performance.

In 2014, its power unit was far superior meaning its deficiencies with the chassis didn’t show up as Red Bull were burdened with a poor Renault power unit. Similarly, in 2017 Ferrari had a superior chassis but it had a weaker power unit relative to Mercedes.

No doubt, Mercedes can nail the 2022 regulations but if engine performance isn’t a significant differentiator between the teams, it will have to nail the chassis side of things - something it didn’t in 2014 and 2017.

Lewis Hamilton is still performing at a high level but at 36, it's only natural he will have a small decline. Max Verstappen is hitting the prime of his career, while the likes of Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc are surely ready for a title fight. 

Who's to say, Hamilton - a year older in 2022 - can overcome F1's rising talent should Mercedes' package not be at the level needed to win an unprecedented eighth title.

Only time will tell if giving up 2021 was worth it.

Connor McDonagh 

What do you think of Mercedes’ development decision? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.