Concern F1 2025 could become ‘qualifying world championship’

Concerns have been raised that the F1 2025 world championship could be dictated by qualifying after a lack of overtaking in the Japanese Grand Prix.

Just 15 overtakes were completed during Sunday’s processional 53-lap race, with 11 of the 20 drivers finishing in the same position they started. Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton was the only driver to gain a position in the top 10, passing Isack Hadjar on Lap 6.

Red Bull’s Max Verstappen resisted race-long pressure from the faster McLarens to claim his first victory of the season. Out of the four races to have been held so far (including the China sprint), all four drivers to have started on pole position have gone on to win.

The dull race at Suzuka left Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur suggesting that this year’s world championship could be decided by qualifying results on Saturday.

“For sure, qualifying is always crucial in the performance,” Vasseur said. “The smaller the gap is between cars, the more true that is... because you are in the group of cars.

“It's not that you are just one fighting with the guy in front of you. Yes, it will probably be a 'quali' championship.”

McLaren counterpart Andrea Stella said F1’s current regulations do not help drivers follow and overtake their rivals.

"Ultimately, we keep adding aerodynamic downforce [to the cars], which means that the losses are even bigger [behind a rival], so I think the dirty air is a problem," Stella explained.

"We have seen this even in China in terms of Hamilton, when he was in the lead of the sprint he could do pretty much whatever he wanted, even if the tyre had damaged. So the lead is a significant factor.

"Even if this generation of car was conceived to actually improve following, that was what we were talking about in 2022, there's been so much aerodynamic development now that again they have become so much of an aerodynamic machine that as soon as you follow you lose the performance."

‘Bored’ F1 drivers lament dirty air struggles

Several drivers complained about how hard it was to overtake and said they were “bored” during Sunday’s grand prix.

“It was flat-out from start to finish but the pace was too similar to do anything,” Lando Norris said.

“Max drove a good race with no mistakes, and it ultimately came down to qualifying positions.”

McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri added: “We got close for the overtake a few times, but track position around here is just so important. I think yesterday [Saturday qualifying] was the day where you effectively won the race.”

New Williams driver Carlos Sainz even went as far as to liken Suzuka to Monaco.

"The midfield is so tight and around a track where you need to be 0.7 to 0.8 seconds quicker to pass it was impossible to expect a race where you could come back through the field,” he said.

"This a track that has, in a way, become similar to Monaco in how difficult it is to pass.”

Alpine’s Pierre Gasly commented: "It just seemed very tricky to get close. As soon as you get within 0.6 or 0.7 seconds it was really tough to close down that last gap - it's extremely difficult.

"Then you are not doing much [tyre] management, so when all the cars are very similar in performance it's very difficult to make that pass. That's what it is."

Meanwhile, Sauber’s Nico Hulkenberg summed up his 53-lap run in 16th place as “long” and “dull”.

“Not much happening,” the German added. “I spent a lot of the race in traffic and it's not much fun looking at someone's rear wing in the DRS. It's so difficult with these cars in the dirty air.”