Analysis: Pecco Bagnaia’s Mandalika woes are far from over

Through all of the talk about last weekend’s last lap drama at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, another major moment from that race has largely been overlooked: Francesco Bagnaia’s title defence is now on shaky ground.

The factory Ducati rider’s seventh DNF of the season beats the non-score tally of his 2022 and 2023 title-winning years. And when you peal away the surface, there’s something worrying to consider for Bagnaia.

In 2022, Bagnaia heroically overturned a 91-point deficit at the summer break to beat Fabio Quartararo come the final round in Valencia. But Quartararo was battling against a Yamaha losing ground to its rivals while the Desmosedici really hit its stride. In some ways, Quartararo had no business being in the position he was to defend his 2021 crown.

Last year, Jorge Martin didn’t really kick on in the championship chase until the second half of the season. He was by no means wobbling around, but Bagnaia should have had a much bigger edge over the Pramac rider - who had no prior title fighting experience in MotoGP - than he ultimately did.

This is to take nothing away from Bagnaia’s achievements. 

But when you consider the way this year has gone, the leeway to recover from major errors has narrowed. Martin has been guilty of his own. He crashed out of the lead of the Spanish and German GPs, with Bagnaia winning, while his strategy gaffe in the San Marino GP did him no favours and a tumble out of the Mugello sprint stole a few more points away from him.

But since the summer break, Martin has been solid. The Pramac rider has scored 129 points since the British GP, while Bagnaia’s tally over the last five rounds is 79. Compared to the previous five rounds when he’d amassed 147 against Martin’s 120, the swing has been stark.

The gap between them after Emilia Romagna is 24 points, up from four after the sprint, and could have been still as low as eight had Bagnaia settled for third at Misano last weekend. 

Martin may be getting frustrated with finishing second on Sundays lately and his most recent grand prix victory remaining May’s Le Mans round. But consistency in these unpredictable final rounds will be vital.

Mandalika struggle

That is looking especially true after the first day of the Indonesian Grand Prix. 

Emilia Romagna GP winner Enea Bastianini was fastest with a new lap record of 1m29.630s, while Martin was just a shade shy in second on a 1m29.670s. Bagnaia was fourth with a 1m29.712s, so not exactly far away, though that lap was a major salvage job amid a difficult Friday afternoon.

Bagnaia’s no stranger to recovery efforts on the island of Lombok, having come from 13th on the grid last year to win the grand prix after Martin crashed out. But on Friday this year, the “nightmare” of 2023 reared its head as his pace deserted him.

“We were trying things, but on the right side I didn’t feel well, I was struggling a lot to push,” Bagnaia explained after Friday’s running.

This cured itself when he put the soft rear tyre on. But that’s not likely to be the grand prix option, with most last year using the medium. Bagnaia did a lot of work on the medium rear tyre, putting 14 laps on the compound across a few runs in second practice.

The fastest of these was a 1m31.367s. Comparing this to Bastianini (after 15 laps) and Martin (14 laps) on the same tyre, the difference in pace highlights Bagnaia’s problems. Bastianini’s fastest lap on his 15-lap-old medium was a 1m30.625, while Martin’s after 14 was 1m30.549s.

On the average run pace, the gulf between Bagnaia, his chief title rival and a team-mate still within reaching distance of the championship remains. 

Based on a seven-lap average (with non-representative times and cancelled laps removed), Bastianini’s pace was sat at 1m31.066s. For Martin (based on an eight-lap average), he was pretty much the same at 1m31.103s. 

Bagnaia, based on a four-lap average - such was the inconsistent nature of his runs on the medium tyre - his pace was 1m31.627s - 0.561s slower than team-mate Bastianini, and 0.524s off Martin.

Bagnaia put up strong front when pressed on this, stating: “For the long race, I saw Enea and Martin were doing fantastic laps. Also Frankie [Morbidelli] this morning. So, I think we are more like them than what happened today, so I don’t want to think too much on what happened today.”

Morbidelli, incidentally, was third fastest on Friday and his average pace on the medium rear was 1m31.081s. However, he only did five laps on it and then eight on a soft rear - both tyres brand new when he started those runs. So, Morbidelli’s true pace isn’t clear after Friday’s action.

Martin and Bastianini advantage

The problem Bagnaia faces, though, is the fact that both Martin and Bastianini are dialled in already on the medium tyre. Bagnaia will no doubt get himself amongst it in qualifying and will likely be a factor in the sprint given the soft tyre will be used for the half-distance race. But he needs to make a significant improvement on the medium to get involved with Bastianini and Martin.

That’s not to say this won’t be possible. We’ve often seen Bagnaia bounce back on Sundays amid difficult weekends. And as a double world champion, his class often comes to the fore when his back is up against the wall.

Team-mate Bastianini’s Emilia Romagna GP can also provide some solace for Bagnaia. 

The #23 rider was significantly slower than Martin and Bagnaia were on long run pace after Friday last week at Misano. And in the sprint he wasn’t able to trouble them much. But a late night on the Saturday studying the data of his Ducati counterparts allowed him to make a huge step for the grand prix.

And while “reliving the nightmare” of Indonesia 2023 is something Bagnaia won’t want to be doing when he heads to bed tonight, it is a lesson for him and Ducati to fall back on.

Martin found his race pace “impressive” on Friday and feels like his lap times are coming “naturally”. That was also true for him last year, when he crashed out of a commanding lead of the grand prix. That will certainly cross his mind at some point, if the media doesn’t remind him about that first.

If Bagnaia’s difficult form continues into the grand prix, Martin will know just how big of an opportunity he has. Weighing that up in another battle with Bastianini, should he remain a frontrunner this weekend, will test his ability to see the bigger picture. 

After all, ego may be hard to tame if Martin is faced with the possibility of getting revenge for Misano.

For Bastianini, another strong result against both Martin and Bagnaia only stands to boost his title credentials. Should Bagnaia’s troubles persist, his team-mate could help him by taking points from Martin - even if that does mean the gap between both factory team Ducati riders will also shrink.

A fairly low-key Friday for Marc Marquez offered little suggestion that he isn’t going to be as strong a factor in the front battle at Mandalika as was perhaps expected, given his domination on a similarly low grip surface at Aragon. 

However, the Gresini rider did not after the Emilia Romagna GP that the gap between the GP23 and the GP24 is likely to widen in some of these last races.

Part of that will be down to how the GP24 can use all of the grip on offer from Michelin’s 2024 rear tyre, while the GP23 often struggles with the grippier rear pushing the front into corners while braking.

So, while the championship will not be won in Indonesia. How the rest of the weekend unfolds will more than likely offer the biggest clues yet as to how the title run-in will play out…