Lap time analysis: How concerning is the KTM threat to Ducati?

The MotoGP paddock is nearing the end of the first of two triple-headers standing between it and the Valencia finale, and it has been a sequence of grands prix so far that have done little to determine a breakaway title favourite.

Jorge Martin comes into this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix 21 points clear of Francesco Bagnaia - both of whom now seen as the main protagonists, with DNFs in Indonesian for Marc Marquez and Enea Bastianini casting them over 70 points adrift.

While Marquez has ruled “game over”, Bastianini is clinging to the faint hope of mathematical legitimacy. Form across the first 15 rounds of 2024, however, was always threatening to once again see Martin and Bagnaia pitted against each other for the crown.

It was this stage of the season that Martin last year was arguably at his strongest. But it was also the point where major errors did his speed a disservice. On Thursday at Motegi, he revealed just how much the 2023 title battle took a toll on him.

“I sleep much better now,” he said. “Last season was really difficult to manage for me. Maybe not here in Japan but more in Thailand and Malaysia it was really tough and also Valencia.”

The advantage of experience is definitely on Martin’s side now, as he went on to add that he feels like he is much stronger mentally and a “more complete” rider if not quite as fast as he was last year. 

Can Ducati dominate again?

That new found strength was tested on Friday at Motegi, however, and will become the measure of the Spaniard as the rest of the Japanese GP weekend unfolds.

Martin featured prominently on the timesheets in both practice sessions on Friday, with the Pramac rider ending the day third overall with a 1m43.568s - a time only 0.132s off of pacesetter Brad Binder on the factory KTM.

But Martin was far from happy on his bike. He told the media afterwards that it was a “complicated” day as he was “having issues with the bike trying to do everything”. Lacking in front feeling and seeking an improvement on braking, which is a key factor of the stop-and-go Motegi layout, a set-up change in the afternoon took him too far away from where he wanted to be.

To boot, he also felt like he wasn’t able to hold onto the rear tyre that well either during his long running pace.

He put 16 laps on a soft rear tyre - which Michelin reckons is a good GP option as well as the sprint choice if it doesn’t rain - with his average pace at around 1m44.755s based on an eight-lap sample with non-representative and cancelled times removed. That actually marks him out as the fastest in terms of race pace, though only just.

Of course, a 24-lap grand prix is a totally different ball game and Martin is very aware of that, noting that he needs to “make a big step” for Sunday. That will be something complicated by possible rainfall on Saturday washing Friday’s rubber away.

A dry sprint shouldn’t put Martin’s nose out of joint on his current form, but any wet racing this weekend should also suit the Pramac rider decently. In last year’s red-flagged wet grand prix at Motegi, Martin was superb.

Marc Marquez also wasn’t a particularly happy Ducati rider after Friday, with the Gresini runner visibly angry at stages of second practice as his session looked scrappy. Everything got pulled together for the final 10 minutes and he only narrowly missed top spot. Crew chief Frankie Carchedi said it was “one of the toughest Fridays” of the year.

Marquez wouldn’t divulge much on what he was struggling with, but noted braking as being a key area to improve. His run plan was so fragmented that he didn’t do any meaningful long running. Based on a three-lap sample on a soft rear, Marquez’s pace is currently at 1m45.129s. 

At this stage, it’s hard to know exactly where Marquez fits into the equation, but the strengths of the GP24 over the GP23 at Motegi make a podium challenge hard to picture.

Enea Bastianini also had a tricky day as a crash midway through Practice disrupted his running after his foot got stuck in his gear lever and he shifted up instead of down into Turn 13. He did nine laps on a soft rear tyre, with his average pace working out at 1m45.026s. Ducati team-mate Francesco Bagnaia was the polar opposite to his stablemates and ended Friday happy.

After the difficulties of Friday in Indonesia, which ultimately transferred into the grand prix and stopped him from mounting a challenge on Martin, Bagnaia was quick throughout. His time attack of 1m43.754s, which left him seventh, isn’t representative as he made a mistake on that lap. Without it, his ideal lap at present is 1m43.504s, and there’s probably a few more tenths in there should qualifying be dry.

Bagnaia put 12 laps on the soft rear tyre with an average pace of 1m44.773s. He believes himself to be the strongest right now, even if his average best is just a shade slower than Martin’s. However, the difference is negligible against the fact that the Pramac rider isn’t consistent yet on his GP24 at Motegi.

Are KTM a serious threat?

Stealing the headlines on Friday were the KTMs, with Binder leading the way on a 1m43.436s while Pedro Acosta was fourth on his GASGAS-branded Tech3 bike.

The Motegi circuit has been a good one for KTM in recent years. Binder was second in the sprint last year in Japan, while he was on the podium in the grand prix the year before. The stop/start nature of the track plays into the KTM’s good braking, solid engine performance and the way it handles tight corners.

Acosta was strong last weekend in Indonesia. Using a new chassis that Binder dismissed, Acosta qualified second and was able to finish there in the race just 1.4s behind Martin. The gap did get as low as 0.6s at one stage of the Mandalika race, though it’s worth pointing out that Martin then pulled 2.5s clear in the closing stages before backing right off on the last lap to safeguard his first Sunday win since Le Mans.

Still, Acosta’s speed has been consistently good since the Aragon GP as he’s found a lot more confidence in the second half of the season having gone back to settings he used to such good effect at the start of the campaign - while the new chassis has added to this boost.

Bagnaia outlined Martin and Acosta as the riders closest to him after Friday practice, though believes they are “one step away”.

Indeed, Acosta’s form should be cause for concern for Ducati. He put 13 laps on the soft rear tyre and averaged 1m44.867s across a seven-lap sample. That puts him right in the ballpark with pace alongside Bagnaia and Martin.

Binder didn’t factor into Bagnaia’s analysis. And, with the South African’s average pace working out at around 1m45.432s based on a five-lap data sample, that’s fair enough at this point of the weekend. 

Binder stopped reinventing the wheel on Friday at Motegi and just rode with what he is comfortable with, which certainly helped him to his headline lap time. However, Binder did note he had an issue at the start of the second session, so it’s not clear how much this has muddied his race pace.

Acosta, though, once again looks like the Austrian manufacturer’s best hope and Ducati’s biggest pest.

As it remains tight in the championship battle, Martin’s consistency has ultimately put him a foot ahead in the race and can make reasonable claim to being the title favourite ahead of the 16th round of 20 this season.

Off colour on Friday for the first time in a while, chief rival Bagnaia appears to have hit the ground running and the Acosta/KTM threat from Indonesia hasn’t faded from just a few days ago. Therefore, the 2024 Japanese GP is shaping up to be arguably the most important weekend of the season for Martin as he looks to prove beyond all doubt his credentials as championship favourite.