Is “boring” Japanese Grand Prix the norm for MotoGP now?

MotoGP hasn’t witnessed a grand prix that featured more than one change of the lead since the British GP back in August. In Austria, Jorge Martin led for a lap before being overtaken by Francesco Bagnaia in a battle that thrilled for a minute but no more.

Marc Marquez led lights-to-flag in Aragon, while there was only one change of lead apiece at both Misano races. In Indonesia and Japan, Martin and Bagnaia respectively went unchallenged from Turn 1 to the chequered flag.

Last weekend’s Japanese GP at Motegi perhaps represented MotoGP’s nadir race of the current aero and ride height device era. Bagnaia jumped Pedro Acosta off the line to go from second to first at Turn 1 and wouldn’t be headed again. Martin - who came from 11th - put him under a bit of pressure late on, but nothing that amounted to a genuine battle.

Marc Marquez put in an impressive ride from ninth to get to third, the Gresini rider doing most of the interesting overtaking in that race along with Enea Bastianini, who was fourth. Those two got close in the closing laps but, again, nothing came of it.

It was hardly worth the early alarm most fans in Europe had to endure to watch their favourite sporting competition. And it’s no wonder that Marquez made a point of pointing out it was “a boring race” just moments after jumping off his GP23. If he thought it wasn’t very good - and he was actually taking part - then what was the rest of the world meant to think?

Not every race can be a classic. But Motegi was a new low point for the current era of MotoGP regulations that has been steadily coming in the second half of the season, with each race since the British GP generally lacking in much substance.

Motegi is the most demanding circuit for braking, necessitating mandatory use of Brembo’s 355mm discs. It is perhaps the circuit, along with Red Bull Ring and Assen, that most prominently highlights the destruction aerodynamics and ride height devices have wrought on the once great racing spectacle MotoGP used to offer not very long ago.

The track’s stop-and-go layout means everyone is accelerating out of corners more or less the same, while the wake generated by bike aerodynamics lead to a lot of disruption on the front end when a rider goes into braking zones.

Grand prix winner Bagnaia explained exactly what the problem was for riders behind when giving his theory for why Pedro Acosta crashed out of second while chasing him on lap three of 24.

“With Pedro, I had to push a bit more in the first part of the race because I think he was pushing a lot to take back this position, because when you are close to the guys in front of you - under 0.5s - it’s very tough to manage the front,” Bagnaia said.

Martin, who was in Bagnaia’s wheel tracks for most of the grand prix, backed this up: “Coming from the back it was difficult to overtake the riders. I had to use a bit more tyre than Pecco I think. So, I started to close the gap but when you are closer than half a second everything became quite difficult with the bike.”

Marc Marquez is no stranger to big battles at Motegi, his 2017 tussle in the wet with Andrea Dovizioso one of the highlight races of the modern era as part of - arguably - the last genuinely exciting title battle there’s been in the premier class. And while in the 2024 Japanese GP he was one of the prime movers up the order, he explained that this was largely because he was picking easy prey.

“It was boring because there were no overtakes and I love overtakes,” he said. “It’s true that Pecco did the perfect strategy, which was starting on the first position and push, push. Just managing the tyres but trying to open the gap because he knows that Martin and me start behind.

“This kind of circuit, where it’s stop-and-go, if you start behind somebody you lose a lot of performance on the braking. And then you don’t gain on the exit because of the aerodynamics. It makes life a lot more difficult and you can just overtake the guy in front if you are three, four tenths faster. If you are just one tenth faster it’s impossible.”

If you think calling the likes of Brad Binder “easy prey” is a bit strong, just take a look at the final classification. The top four - Bagnaia, Martin, Marquez and Bastianini - were covered by 4.3s. A further 13.582s passed before fifth-placed Franco Morbidelli took the chequered flag. The speed of the top four in Japan, as it has been all year, was incredible. But it made for a results sheet reminiscent of MotoGP’s less competitive days in the last 2000s and early 2010s.

There were factors that didn’t help the race. Martin starting out of position following a crash in Q2 robbed us of the two title challengers starting much closer together. Based on the pace both had in the grand prix, perhaps that would have led to a closer contest - though the aforementioned overtaking issue would have remained.

One rider who defies conventional wisdom about modern MotoGP bikes is Pedro Acosta. The Tech3 GASGAS rider would have posed a big threat to Bagnaia in the grand prix had he not crashed out of second early on, marking a double DNF for the Japanese GP having fallen out of the lead of the sprint.

Marc Marquez’s cancelled lap in Q2 that would have seen him on pole dropping him to ninth removed another frontrunner out of the way. With Bagnaia, Acosta, Martin and Marquez involved in a race, there may have been a few more fireworks than we saw.

Marquez and Bastianini put on a good show in the latter stages of the sprint in their battle for second, but that was as enthralling as the Japanese GP weekend got. And unfortunately, the delay in cancelling Marquez’s Q2 time - which was later blamed on a system glitch - largely dominated conversation after the sprint anyway, which is something that has happened a bit too much lately.

The championship race remains tight, with Bagnaia’s brilliantly judged ride in the grand prix giving him just 10 points now to make up to get on par with Martin in the standings. But the fact Bagnaia has suffered seven DNFs and won eight grands prix and is still behind, while both riders haven’t actually done much in the way of on-track battling this year, has dulled the impact of this championship.

Motegi was a low point for the season, but was a continuation of a downwards trend we’ve seen since the summer break. The unknowns posed by Phillip Island’s new track surface should lead to a much more exciting Australian GP. But that will be an outlier in an otherwise lean period for action in MotoGP.

A new season will offer a much-needed reset, but Michelin’s front tyre aimed at coping better with heat and therefore make overtaking a bit easier won’t be introduced in 2025 now as had originally been planned.

And after the 2024 Japanese GP, that delay leaves an uneasy feeling that not a lot will be changing anytime soon…