Lap time analysis: Pecco Bagnaia v Jorge Martin

Not since those early days of the COVID-19 outbreak as the world grappled with the emerging realities of life to come has the MotoGP World Championship faced such uncertainty. Upon arrival to Malaysia and the Sepang International Circuit this week, the horrors of the deadly flooding in Valencia have cast a sombre shadow over the paddock.

The Spanish roots run deep in MotoGP and the heartbreak mother nature has inflicted upon the people of Valencia - a place with such strong ties to the series - has seen the riders prove to be wonderful ambassadors.

The likes of Marc Marquez, Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia spoke publicly of their support for Valencia, urged the rest of the world to put humanity above sport, and backed MotoGP to do the right thing.

For Bagnaia and Martin, their thoughts first and foremost were elsewhere. But the reality of the situation in Valencia would always have to branch off to take into consideration the impact it will have on the outcome of the 2024 title battle.

The Malaysian GP represents the last of a second triple-header in the Asia-Pacific region and the sixth race in seven weeks. The paddock is burnt out. The title battle remains nerve-shreddingly tight, with just 17 points splitting Martin from Bagnaia with - officially - two rounds to go.

As the pair hit the track on Friday, neither knew exactly what the future held. As of Friday evening, the Valencia GP has been officially cancelled in a U-turn on MotoGP’s initial stance, and a replacement is being hastily finalised to be announced in the coming days. So, there remain 74 points up for grabs and a crucial lifeline thrown out to Bagnaia’s hopes of a third successive crown.

“I know that the important thing is to win, I have to win in any case, so for me the objective is that one, and I wanted to start well, I wanted to work well, and try to be constant and competitive in every situation,” Bagnaia - who refused to race in Valencia regardless of his title situation - said when asked if his approach was changed by the situation ahead of Friday.

Bagnaia is at a point in his season now that the seven DNFs that have come across the 18 rounds run so far weigh incredibly heavy. One more mistake in a race and it is likely game over for his hopes. Off-track, putting humanity above a championship, Bagnaia cemented himself as a champion befitting of the title.

On it on Friday, he did the same. He topped both practice sessions - only the second time ever he’s done that and the first since this year’s Dutch GP. It’s timely to remind you that Bagnaia did the double at Assen that weekend as Martin firmly played second-best to his factory Ducati counterpart.

Bagnaia stole headlines in FP1 for setting session-topping lap 0.7s clear of the field. This was skewed somewhat by him fitting a fresh medium rear - the softest option available this weekend - for a late time attack. Easy to pass it off as a mere glory run, there was a clever calculation to this decision.

“We decided to go with a medium rear already in FP1, to start in the Practice to start with a worse situation because I know the consumption of the rear tyre on this track is huge, and it was important to start in a worse situation to have already a drop and try to be competitive [in] the same [way],” he explained. 

Bagnaia gains Friday advantage

When he started his first run in the second session, his medium rear had already done five laps and had been punished in time attack conditions. The tyre - which was the race option last year - had 14 laps on it by the end, with Bagnaia’s average pace (based on four laps) working out at 1m59.809s. Looking at Enea Bastianini’s race winning pace from 2023, his lap 14 was a 1m59.814s.

Martin for much of Practice looked like the more comfortable of the title fighters. He also put 14 laps on a medium rear tyre, but started that race run on a fresh one. Therefore, his average pace looks like it blows Bagnaia out of the water. Based on seven laps, Martin is at 1m59.349s pace - which is, at least more representatively, much faster than Bastianini was at 1m59.762s.

On time attack, there was practically nothing to separate Martin and Bagnaia. A 1m57.679s put Bagnaia 0.050s clear of Martin at the end of Practice. Bastianini didn’t exactly disgrace himself, but 0.198s off his team-mate and 0.148s behind Martin is a considerable margin given the extremes to which the title duo are reaching on their GP24s.

In FP1 there were some mind games at play. Bagnaia backed out of a run when informed Martin was following him. The pair ran line astern slowly, Martin behind Bagnaia, along the back straight. It was a fairly silly looking moment, with Martin eventually moving off.

If it rattled a cage, Bagnaia didn’t show it. And Martin ending his day in the Turn 1 gravel trap after a crash as he started his final flying lap certainly hands any psychological edge to the reigning world champion.

Martin later explained away his crash as the typical GP24 fall of the rear pushing the front and his engine braking settings maybe not being right where they needed to be. But, as Bagnaia noted in Indonesia, this is after all a “championship of mistakes”. Martin can afford to make one this weekend; Bagnaia cannot. 

Both have expertly fielded questions about pressure, especially in the face of the uncertainty they faced coming into the weekend. Both ended Friday saying they felt competitive on their bikes - with Bagnaia noting that his affinity for Sepang makes riding his bike “easier” - and the lap times back this up.

Going into the most important qualifying and sprint day of the season, Bagnaia appears to have a slight edge over his rival as he ventures further into uncharted territory. The Italian has navigated the pressure of fighting for a title, but his back hasn’t been against the wall in the way that it is now.

To win the championship this weekend, Martin has to leave Sepang with a 38-point advantage in his back pocket. Bagnaia can shut down that opportunity in the sprint if he carries on the way he has on Friday.

If he can do that, the momentum may well fully shift in his direction…