Interference? Marc Marquez might be key to MotoGP title decider

Dorna Sports deserves a lot of credit for the fact that, as scheduled, the final round of the 2024 MotoGP season will be held on the 15-17 November weekend.

The devastating floods which swept through Valencia just a few weeks ago firmly put MotoGP as the least important consideration of the situation. But Dorna calmly and efficiently put together a solution to stage a race in Barcelona instead, keeping the championship schedule on track and ensuring a final showdown between Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia can unfold.

The Solidarity GP of Barcelona is a touching nod to the people of Valencia, with MotoGP set to action a number of initiatives to help raise money for the flood relief effort.

But solidarity is something seldom found in MotoGP, not least when the ultimate prize in motorcycle racing is on the line. Martin leads Bagnaia by 24 points, and needs to outscore his rival by two - which he could well do in the sprint race - to bring the title home to Spain.

The maths is stacked in Martin’s favour. Bagnaia has no choice but to go out and try to win both races. But with eight DNFs hanging over him - one of which a crash out of the lead of the last lap of the Catalan GP sprint at Barcelona back in May - like the Sword of Damocles, it’s another advantage in Martin’s favour.

Ducati has also engineered a situation where it has all but left Bagnaia without any real wingmen to support.

Its U-turn on promoting Martin to its factory team for 2025 in favour of Marc Marquez, which took place just a few days after the Catalan GP, and the resulting ousting of Enea Bastianini from his seat leaves little reason for the Italian to stand up for the marque that gave him the cold shoulder. Maybe it can persuade him with a tidy bonus for compliance, but that thought will go out the window if a grand prix win is staring him in the face.

Franco Morbidelli is sat between a rock and a hard place as a Pramac representative and a VR46 Academy member, albeit one who has played little part in the lead battle this year on his GP24 anyway. 

The aging GP23s having paled in form as the second half of the year has gone on, leaving VR46 ally Marco Bezzecchi somewhat helpless to support Bagnaia, while Alex Marquez and Michele Pirro (Fabio Di Giannantonio’s replacement for the weekend at VR46) are in the same position.

Bagnaia has stood against the idea of factory orders, which Ducati team manager Davide Tardozzi confirmed prior to the Malaysian GP this will amount to no more than this simple message to the Bologna-based marque’s stable: “Don’t do stupid things.”

The reigning double world champion has also stuck with his principles of fairness, electing against slowing up the pace in the Malaysian GP to bring Marquez and Bastianini into play to potentially take more points off Martin. It’s a valiant stance and speaks to Bagnaia’s character, though perhaps it also shows a lack of ruthlessness that will be tested in 2025…

With his back against the wall, maybe Bagnaia will change tact at Barcelona. He already said after the Sepang race that he will look to offer as many riders a tow as he can throughout the final round to get some machines between himself and Martin. That said, such has been the form of the championship’s top two of late that anyone brave enough to hook onto Bagnaia will be running the gravel trap gauntlet.

The only rider over the course of the year who has consistently been able to do so has been Marc Marquez. Before crashing out of the Sepang GP, he was running with the top two on a GP23 that is a step behind even where it was in May’s Barcelona visit when Marquez came through from 14th on the grid to the podium in both races.

The GP24 runners have noted in the last few months that the GP23 seems to have better traction. At the low-grip Barcelona circuit, that could prove a crucial point in Marquez’s quest to score one final race win in 2024 and also secure third in the standings.

Indeed, while all eyes are on the championship battle, the fight for third between Marquez and Bastianini - GP23 vs GP24, Ducati’s future vs Ducati’s past - is split by just a single point ahead of this weekend and will go all the way to the grand prix.

When asked by Crash.net's MotoGP Editor Peter McLaren at the Malaysian GP if he would prefer one more win or third in the standings, Marquez’s answer was emphatically for the former. Publicly, he doesn’t care about final championship standings. This season hasn’t been about that for the Gresini rider.

Ducati would naturally prefer it to save a bit of pride; its 2025 factory line-up finishing second to the current factory stable it is getting rid of will be a point of contention within management offices over an uncomfortable winter as it keeps fingers tightly crossed that its vision for next year does pay off.

But if Marquez’s sole focus is one more win, that makes him a potentially dangerous prospect for both Martin and Bagnaia - and also a possible ally for both.

The subject of ‘interference’ has been broached a number of times over the past couple of months, as the ghosts of 2015 still haunt the memories of some. Speaking ahead of the Thai GP, having the week before taken five points away from Martin in the Australian GP by beating him after a hard late battle, Marquez said: “Even in 2015 I was not in the middle and I theoretically took points from somebody. You never know. You cannot control these things. I will do my 100%.”

It’s worth noting that the five extra points in Australia Martin could have gained over Bagnaia would have his championship lead out to 29 coming to the finale. Had he not crashed out of second in the Thai GP, Bagnaia would be four points closer to Martin - and, as the latter pointed out, he only stayed on his GP24 himself because Marquez’s fall allowed him to anticipate his own front end moment.

Last year, Marquez - when on the Honda - elected not to fight Martin at the Qatar GP hard for 10th place because he wasn’t part of the title battle and didn’t want to take points away from him. In Thailand this year, his attempts at overtaking Bagnaia for the lead were done cleanly. As an eight-time world champion, he understands the situation Martin and Bagnaia face, and with nothing to contribute he won’t take any unnecessary risks.

That said, Australia proved that when he has the pace - regardless of who he is racing - he will go for it. Again, his racing with Martin was clean at Phillip Island. Should a similar situation arise at Barcelona, Marquez will operate as he has already done.

How that ends up impacting Martin and Bagnaia is of little consequence, though. And being the chaser, Bagnaia is the one likely to be hit harder by this than Martin given the points difference. Martin can afford to lose a few points to his rival so long as he stays within the threshold to win the title; Bagnaia cannot.

As a future team-mate to Bagnaia, some consider Marquez as the one to play the tailgunner role. But while Marquez won’t do anything silly, it would be naive to think there would be such compliance from the 31-year-old.

He’s already gotten what he wants out of Ducati, forcing it to show just how important he was to its plans by completely destroying the equilibrium it had created. It is losing Martin to Aprilia, Pramac to Yamaha, Bastianini to KTM and Marco Bezzecchi to Aprilia, while it will have only three GP25s on the grid next year.

Marquez doesn’t need to consider managerial wishes after such a devastating powerplay. Going about his business as usual in Barcelona to the unwitting detriment of Bagnaia’s title hopes (and, really, the current number one must lay blame at the feet of his eight DNFs if he does lose) would also have the added bonus for Marquez of stepping into the factory Ducati team not being paired with the reigning champion.

His refusal to join Pramac and Ducati senior management’s fears of losing him already proved that Bagnaia’s position within the manufacturer is not as strong as it should be for its most successful rider ever in MotoGP. Bagnaia facing 2025 having lost the title and with Marquez now in his house only works in the latter’s favour.

Marquez won’t be coopted into any support role at the Solidarity GP, nor will he doing anything reckless in favour of one title challenger or the other. But there are plenty of reasons for him to be a major factor in the outcome of the 2024 MotoGP World Championship…