Pedro Acosta’s MotoGP future: Stay at KTM, go to Ducati... or Pramac?

Since last November, Pedro Acosta’s MotoGP future has been the major talking point. Through KTM’s initial uncertainty over the Christmas period regarding its survival as it navigated its way through a major financial crisis, Acosta was already being linked to a move elsewhere in 2026.

And while KTM has managed to secure its survival through restructuring, it has made such a lacklustre start to 2025 that Pedro Acosta remaining at the Austrian brand in 2026 looks even more uncertain despite having a multi-year contract with his signature on it.

It has been a question he has fielded repeatedly in recent months and has continually batted it away. At the Americas Grand Prix last weekend, he said: “I came to KTM with a clear dream and the dream is still there.”

Acosta owes a lot to KTM. When his deal to come to Moto3 in 2021 with Prustel GP fell through, he found a haven at the Ajo KTM squad. He went on to win his first world title in his rookie season, before stepping up to Moto2 with Ajo and KTM, where he was champion again in 2023. Bringing him up to MotoGP inside the first three years of his grand prix career, Acosta won’t readily throw the brand under the bus.

But after three rounds in 2025, he currently sits 13th in the standings having scored just 16 points. At the same stage of 2024, his rookie season, he was fourth in the points on 54 having made two grand prix podium visits on the RC16.

The closest a KTM has been to winning a grand prix this year so far was Enea Bastianini at COTA, who was 12.238s adrift in seventh. At no point yet has KTM breached the 10 seconds or less deficit at the chequered flag.

While the speed of the 2025 RC16 is solid, it appears to not hold its tyres for very long over a race distance, while Acosta complained at COTA of vibration issues. While most seemed to have gotten on top of this issue that began with Michelin introducing its grippier rear tyre at the start of last year, KTM continues to chase its tail.

For all of his defending of KTM, 20-year-old Acosta’s patience will soon start to fade and he’ll begin to wonder if his talents are being wasted. Indeed, manager Albert Valera will certainly be thinking the latter as rumours continue to swirl.

Two problems arise, though. The first is the limited options on the 2026 grid, should Acosta elect to quit KTM. VR46 has a vacancy currently for next year, as does Honda at both its factory squad and LCR, and Pramac. Every other seat is filled with riders on contracts at least to the end of 2026, though we have seen in the past that this is never a guarantee of stability.

But the second - and arguably biggest - problem is whether or not Acosta could leave KTM. The Austrian brand weaves notoriously thick, web-like contracts with riders that give it all the power. If it wants to stand in a rider’s way, it will. KTM has a lot of love and respect for Acosta and everything he has done for the brand. But as it faces still an uncertain future, would it really be willing to let arguably the most talented rider it has had on its books walk away so easily? That seems hard to imagine.

The hot rumour

VR46 Racing Team - Ducati

This is the rumour that refuses to die and was seemingly sparked when Acosta took part in Valentino Rossi’s 100Km of Champions event in Tavullia in January.

In March when broaching the subject, VR46 team boss Pablo Nieto said: “We want to continue with him [Franco Morbidelli]. Obviously, we think he has incredible potential. But obviously Acosta is a rider who is liked, of course. He's a very, very interesting rider, but now is not the time to talk about it.”

VR46 has a place for 2026, with Franco Morbidelli not contracted beyond 2025. Morbidelli is loved in the VR46 organisation and has done a good job so far on the GP24 in 2025, reaching the podium at the Argentina GP. If he continues to be a regular podium contender, VR46 will have a hard time kicking him to the kerb.

The team is also factory-supported by Ducati on Fabio Di Giannantonio’s side of the garage. That deal is exclusive to him and lasts until the end of 2026. It’s not inconceivable that Ducati could expand its efforts to field a fourth GP25 for Acosta next year if he does come to VR46. Ducati would be foolish not to at least try and have a hand in facilitating this move if it can; having Marc Marquez and Acosta on its machinery at the same time would be a dream scenario for a manufacturer.

From Valentino Rossi’s perspective, Acosta is seen - according to Gazzetta dello Sport - as the ‘anti-Marquez’. Rossi would surely enjoy destabilising the Ducati eco-system that is quickly being established around Marquez by putting one of the few riders on the grid who could likely consistently go toe-to-toe with the eight-time world champion on one of his bikes.

However, with resources being shifted to the 2027 bikes, Ducati may simply not have the capacity to build all new parts for a fourth factory bike. With the freeze in engine development in force now for Ducati, Acosta would likely be going to VR46 on a two-year-old bike - something he could do well on, but probably not to the level he would want.

The financial aspect is also another sticking point. Even without any decent results right now, Acosta would still come at a high price tag. Sure, he’d be willing to leave something on the table to simply have competitive machinery - as Marquez did in 2024 with Gresini - but he could probably earn more and get a full factory contract elsewhere.

The unlikely route

Pramac Racing - Yamaha

The Pramac team has a ride free currently for 2026 after only signing Jack Miller to a one-year deal. And over the COTA weekend, rumours have been stirring that perhaps the Paolo Campinoti-owned outfit could throw its hat in the ring to acquire Acosta.

Pramac is now a fully factory-supported Yamaha team and has the credence of being a world championship-winning outfit, after it helped Jorge Martin to the 2024 crown when it ran Ducati machinery.

Spanish broadcaster DAZN caught an intriguing back-and-forth between Acosta and Campinoti during the COTA weekend that suggests he is casting his net out to try and tempt the young Spaniard.

Campinoti is heard in the paddock while hugging Acosta saying: “You know that, don’t you?”, to which Acosta replies: “Yes, yes. I know,” which is followed by Campinoti adding: “The most important thing is that…”

At this point, Acosta cuts him off and says: “You talk to Valera.”

Snippets lacking in full context, it hasn’t stopped tongues from wagging in the paddock. But a move to Pramac seems far-fetched. Yamaha currently is last in the manufacturers’ standings, though Pramac’s Jack Miller has show some promise for the bike after ending the Americas GP in fifth.

While Yamaha isn’t constrained by the same development restrictions as Ducati, KTM and Aprilia currently are, can it really take the step to winning races regularly before 2027? That seems unlikely, given what we’ve seen so far.

Acosta speaking to Campinoti is one thing, but Yamaha would likely be where the real discussions happen. It’s worth noting that in 2019, Ducati somewhat held Pramac and Miller to ransom as the marque talked with Jorge Lorenzo about bringing him back into its fold at the satellite team in place of the Australian for 2020. It was only when Lorenzo rejected this that Miller was able to pen a new Pramac deal. So, while Campinoti’s approach to Acosta is interesting, it comes across as someone trying to appear a bigger player than they actually are.

Yamaha also burned a lot of budget on signing Fabio Quartararo to a new two-year deal that it’s unlikely to be able to get anywhere near to acquire Acosta’s services.

The most likely option

Honda

Of all the options, a move to the factory Honda team seems like it would be the most logical. While rumours about this haven’t been as loud, Honda has made a much better start to the 2025 season than anticipated to the point where it could be contending for podiums by the second half of the year.

All of a sudden, riding a Honda seems like an attractive prospect. Its top rider in the standings at the moment is LCR’s Johann Zarco in seventh, who bettered Honda’s best result from the entirety of 2024 at the opening round of 2025. He then exceeded that in Argentina at round two having qualified on the front row.

At this stage, the Honda looks like the more competitive bike than the KTM. And it is only going to get better as the impact of new technical director Romano Albesiano is felt in the coming months. Free to continue developing its package into 2026, Honda is fast positioning itself to be the manufacturer to bet on when the 2027 rules reset comes around.

It has two contracts up for renewal at the end of the year: Zarco’s at LCR, and Luca Marini’s at the factory team.

On merit, Zarco should be given Marini’s seat without question. He was Honda’s leading light in a miserable 2024 and has really emerged as the project’s spearhead. But Zarco is 34 and his career will be winding down in the next few years. Acosta instantly becomes the better bet from this standpoint alone, never mind the fact that he is easily the more talented rider.

Honda really was hurt by its golden boy Marc Marquez quitting it to try to rebuild his career. Snaring Acosta would go a long way to filling the void the six-time MotoGP champion left at the Japanese marque.

Acosta’s riding style should match to the Honda quite well, while Honda would be able to compensate him handsomely as one of its factory riders. To boot, Honda hasn’t really been able to tempt a proper triple A prospect into its ranks since Marquez; Ai Ogura repeatedly rebuffed a MotoGP move with HRC.

Luca Marini has done a good job in 2025, so kicking him to the kerb would be tough. But MotoGP is a business and Honda can’t afford to let an opportunity to sign Acosta slip through its grasp.

Why remaining at KTM in 2026 is also a viable option for Pedro Acosta

While what we’ve written already about KTM and the way it structures its contracts is valid, there is something else to consider: Pedro Acosta is smart enough to play the long game.

Acosta knows just how good a rider he is and he knows that every manufacturer will be falling over themselves in 2026 trying to sign him for 2027 when most current factory deals are up for renewal.

With such a radical shift in regulations coming for 2027, and the fact he is not exactly running out of years, Acosta has time to truly study the shifting landscape and make an informed decision for his career.

Biding his time also means key factory seats at Ducati and Aprilia come on the market. Ducati’s 2027 line-up will be an interesting one given the talent it has on its books already, the fact it will likely have to pay much more for Marc Marquez’s contract should he continue with it beyond 2026, and the number of free agents it could look to snare.

Based on current form, staying on the KTM another years doesn’t seem like something anyone would go for. But if the brand can get on top of the vibration issues and its tyre wear troubles, it has a bike Acosta is more than capable of winning races on.

So, while there are good options on the table for 2026 already, staying where he is also isn’t necessarily a bad thing…