Marc Marquez’s Qatar MotoGP warning may be coming true after Friday practice

Marc Marquez sat and faced the media on Thursday evening at the Lusail International Circuit and warned: “It’s the first circuit, theoretically, that Alex [Marquez] and Pecco [Bagnaia] are better than me.”

Much has been made coming into the Qatar Grand Prix that this would be the weekend where Bagnaia’s championship challenge really kicks off. He won the event last year and has a handful of podiums to his credit at the venue. But those numbers don’t really differ from Marquez’s record in the dark of the desert, albeit over a longer period of time.

Given the form Marquez has been on in 2025 so far on the factory Ducati, winning five of the first six races and well on his way to maintaining that 100% record at the Americas Grand Prix before crashing from the lead, a sudden swing of the pendulum did seem unlikely.

And after FP1 in the hot afternoon at Lusail, order looked to be restored. Marquez was fastest of all by over half a second. But, that somewhat flattered to deceive. Lusail is always dusty when MotoGP arrives to it on the first day, and was even more so this time around given no test had been held at the venue prior to the grand prix weekend. Typically, these are conditions where Marquez flourishes.

In other words, that result was - ahem - written in the sand…

When Practice got underway as the bright spotlights lining the track broke the darkness enveloping the land around the circuit, Marquez set the best lap of the day at that point on his second attempt and was again over half a second clear.

When the chequered flag flew, however, he was third on the timesheets behind Bagnaia and behind an impressive VR46 Ducati of Franco Morbidelli - who set a 1m50.830s while the boss, Valentino Rossi, watched on from the sidelines.

Pecco Bagnaia really has made a step in Qatar practice

Bagnaia noted after Friday practice in America that he’d found something to improve his feeling under braking, which was a main issue of his on the GP25. While he was able to emerge as second-best at COTA, he still wasn’t able to get near team-mate Marc Marquez’s pace.

But after practice at Lusail, there is genuine reason for Bagnaia to be confident that he is more in a position to challenge Marquez this weekend.

While one-lap pace is one thing, and we haven’t seen the true form of either factory team Ducati rider yet as they both elected against a final soft tyre time attack at the end of Practice to do some more work on used mediums, long run pace shows Bagnaia out in front.

Compiled below is the best average lap from the top five’s runs, as well as those from the non-Ducati manufacturers. While nobody did any real long running on used rubber, the slender sample we do have shows Bagnaia with an advantage in his pocket.

The sample is skewed somewhat by the fact Marc Marquez did more representative laps than Bagnaia did on the medium rear. But it is the first time that Bagnaia has genuinely looked like he is in the ball park.

“It felt good, I’m happy. From FP1 I was feeling great but I was still missing something, something that we found this afternoon,” he said, adding: “We did something on the bike that was helping me more to turn more.”

Lusail’s more flowing nature in some ways helps Bagnaia more than it does Marquez, because harder braking circuits favour the latter. And in this very moment, if Bagnaia is still missing in this area, Lusail will mask it somewhat. Bagnaia is also a more naturally flowing rider, though one who - when he has what he needs - is also a demon on the brakes.

Tyre choice remains something of a question mark, but Bagnaia was slightly quicker on average than Marquez on soft rubber on average pace in Practice too.

Marc Marquez down, but far from unhappy

With all of that said, Marquez’s pace is very much in a good spot. In fact, for him, it was better than expected. “I expected to be further from Pecco and Alex [Marquez], because normally they are very fast here and it’s normally one of the circuits where I struggle,” he said. 

“But I started in a good way from the beginning, I felt better on the used tyres than on new tyres like usual in this track. But at the moment I’m riding alone, trying different riding styles in a circuit that normally is against my riding style and I need to adapt a bit.”

Marquez added that he would have “signed” for how Friday finished pre-weekend had that been offered to him.

As far as pecking order goes, both Bagnaia and Marc Marquez look to have a small step on Alex Marquez. While the Gresini rider on his GP24 was up there, the fact both factory team riders were on similar pace on medium rubber while he was on the soft (and were both quicker on average than his medium tyre run) suggests Alex Marquez’s grip on the championship lead may be short-lived.

Jorge Martin returns and doesn’t disgrace himself

While what goes on at the front of the field will come to dominate headlines as of Saturday, it would be unfair to ignore the trials of the reigning world champion at the other end of the order as he makes his comeback from injury.

Jorge Martin has had a pretty miserable time of things since February, with the reigning champion suffering multiple injuries in a crash after just 13 laps at the Sepang test. Another incident while training ahead of the Thai GP left him with even more fractures and an uncertain future.

He made a welcome return to action on Friday with the number one plate gloriously shining on the front of his factory Aprilia. Gritting his teeth in FP1, a good dose of painkillers helped him in the second session to string some decent laps together and start to give feedback to his team.

He completed 34 laps on Friday to add to the 90 total he’d done on the bike since last November. At the end of the day he was just 1.568s off the best pace.

The weekend will only get tougher for Martin as his physical limits are tested. But if his starting point is just shy of 1.6s back after so long off the bike, and just four tenths from the leading Aprilia of Ai Ogura, then the world champion is going to be ok…