Are the fates of Marc Marquez and Yamaha strangely intertwined?

The futures of Marc Marquez and Yamaha could be oddly linked.

The common denominator is Pramac Ducati.

This weekend’s Catalunya MotoGP comes amid the backdrop of two massive negotiations happening behind-the-scenes.

The first is Ducati’s decision over their 2025 MotoGP rider line-up, and who to give the official bike to.

The second is Pramac’s decision of whether to stick with Ducati or become a Yamaha satellite team next year.

And those two big decisions both have Marquez included in the mix.

Marquez wants a 2025-spec Ducati next year, he has made it clear.

Ducati are deciding whether current incumbent Enea Bastianini will be replaced by Gresini’s Marquez or Pramac’s Jorge Martin.

But Marquez has seemingly softened his stance about demanding a promotion into the factory team, as long as he receives a factory-spec bike.

“Regardless of the colour or brand”, Marquez said, hinting he is not only looking for the red Ducati.

That brings Pramac into the equation.

Pramac know they will lose Martin next year - he has vowed to either finally go to the factory Ducati team, or quit the manufacturer altogether.

Pramac could offer Marquez a latest-spec bike, just as they do now with Martin.

Martin is topping the MotoGP standings after five rounds, proving he does not require extra factory support to contend for the title. Marquez will have surely noted this.

For Pramac, the allure of welcoming the esteemed Marquez into their garage is obvious.

And it would surely keep them in the fight for the championship in 2025, whereas a duo of Franco Morbidelli and (likely) Fermin Aldeguer would be unlikely to guarantee that.

But Pramac can only offer a ‘25-spec Desmosedici to Marquez if they commit to Ducati for the next two years.

If they do, the Ducati bosses might see Pramac as the ideal landing spot for Marquez.

Ducati could arguably promote Martin to the factory team, and hand Marquez over to Pramac, giving him the factory-spec bike he wants, if they can make the finances work.

Pramac are pondering whether to activate a contractual clause in their current deal which would tie them to Ducati for 2025 and 2026, with factory machinery.

But they also have an offer to join Yamaha next season, which would reportedly be financially attractive for Paolo Campinoti’s team.

Yamaha are desperate to add a satellite team, to double their presence on the 2025 grid.

Lin Jarvis said recently that the Japanese manufacturer is confident of attracting one of the existing teams.

But VR46 reportedly turned Yamaha down, despite the mutual link of Valentino Rossi, and Gresini have confirmed that their status as a Ducati team will not change next year.

That leaves Pramac as their last hope to achieve their masterplan.

Pramac are stuck in the middle - do they stick with Ducati and bring Marquez in? Or do they flee to Yamaha?

And if they go to Yamaha, but Ducati want Martin in their factory team, then what will Marquez do in 2025?

It is viable that Pramac choose to go to Yamaha, Ducati pick Martin as their factory rider, and Marquez and Bastianini are both left searching the garages of rival brands for the best bike available. That brings KTM and Aprilia into play.

Ducati have promised to make their rider decision by Mugello at the end of May.

Pramac reportedly have until the end of July to decide between staying or going to Yamaha.

This weekend’s round in Barcelona will add a further layer of detail to a very complex situation…