Marc Marquez’s hope of halting GP24 onslaught in Austria looks difficult
Strong Friday at Red Bull Ring for Marc Marquez on GP23, but can he challenge the GP24s?
The competitive gap between the GP23 and GP24 Ducati MotoGP bikes has become one of the big talking points following a British Grand Prix two weeks ago in which the 2024 machine held a clear advantage over its predecessor.
At Silverstone, Gresini Ducati rider Marc Marquez admitted that at some tracks there was a clear gulf, with the Spaniard noting his deficit over a race distance in Britain was around four or five seconds.
Ahead of this weekend’s Austrian GP, reigning double world champion Francesco Bagnaia told DAZN that the gap between both bikes is “strange” as the GP24 hasn’t evolved much across the first 10 rounds while the GP23 - according to him - has received updates.
With three GP24s locking out the top three in both races at Silverstone, it suggested that the latest Demosedici takes its edge at circuits with a greater emphasis on power.
While the difference in engines between the GP24 and GP23 won’t be huge, the factory ride height device of the former seems to help in this area.
The Red Bull Ring - scene of this weekend’s Austrian GP - is another power-focused track. After Friday practice, the competitive order was much like it was at the British GP: three GP24s leading the way, with Marquez fourth on his GP23.
Bagnaia led the way on outright lap times with a 1m28.508s, setting a new lap record, while Franco Morbidelli was his closest challenger on the Pramac GP24 - the Italian posting a 1m28.789s. Third was championship leader Jorge Martin with a 1m28.827s, while Marquez was fourth on a 1m28.858s.
At the end of Friday’s running, Bagnaia has a clear advantage in terms of raw speed. While 0.350s covering the top four isn’t much - 0.281s of that gap belongs in Bagnaia’s back pocket. Winning the Austrian GP in the last two years, it’s no surprise he has come out of the blocks swinging on Friday in the 2024 edition.
Long run worry for Marc Marquez
While long-run data isn’t wholly representative of what we will see on Sunday afternoon, it does offer a glimpse as to what the pecking order - particularly in the GP24 vs GP23 stakes - could look like.
And it’s not positive for Marquez at this point of the weekend.
Taking into account the most representative long running for the top four, which in this instance is the runs in which they used the same tyre consecutively, Bagnaia also leads the way here.
Using the medium rear tyre for his first two runs in the hour-long second practice on Friday afternoon, Bagnaia managed a 1m30.026s on the 15th lap of that compound’s life. Looking at his average on that tyre (excluding unrepresentative laps and those cancelled for track limits) his pace currently sits at 1m29.865s.
Morbidelli’s strong start to the Austrian GP on the day he was announced as a VR46 Ducati rider for 2025 puts him second on this chart. He also used the same medium rear tyre for two consecutive runs, though his was only five-laps old for his second run compared to Bagnaia’s 10-lap old rubber.
Morbidelli’s best on a 10-lap old tyre was 1m30.078s with an average of 1m30.073s. Team-mate Martin did most of his work on Friday on the soft rubber and put in an impressive turn on it.
The championship leader did back-to-back runs on a single soft rear, with his tyre aged at 12 laps for the second of these runs. His best on it was a 1m30.405s on the 16th lap of that tyre’s life, while his average pace worked out at 1m30.155s. Certainly looking to the sprint, where the soft will likely be used, Martin will be a major threat.
Marquez used one medium tyre for his first two runs in second practice. He did a 1m30.135s on a 10-lap-old tyre, while his average worked out at 1m30.239s.
Across a grand prix distance of 28 laps for the Austrian GP, Bagnaia is currently on pace to win on Sunday by 5.824s over the next-best GP24 - which, in this sample, is Morbidelli. That isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, either, as Bagnaia beat KTM’s Brad Binder by 5.191s in last year’s Austrian GP.
For Marquez, based on current projections, his gulf to the leading GP24 would be 10.472s at the chequered flag. Even to Martin using the above data, he is missing the podium by 2.352s.
Of course, racing is never that simple and Bagnaia is more than likely to see his advantage over the rest of the field cut down tomorrow as data is assimilated overnight.
Marquez had a scrappy start to the Austrian GP, ending FP1 down in 18th after a lap good enough for eighth was cancelled due to track limits. But there was a clear step forward in the afternoon, which is a trend that looks set to continue.
Marquez has also proven on countless occasions this season already that he and his Gresini crew often bring their best to Sunday’s race. His marches through the field from outside the top 12 at the French, Catalan and German GPs to the podium speaks to that.
But his hopes of breaking his victory duck on the Ducati this weekend look very difficult after Friday’s practices…
