Ducati end-point predicted with one big headache identified

Ducati will face a major problem when the new MotoGP rules come into effect, it has been predicted.

The Italian manufacturer has been largely dominant since the start of 2023, and ended a 15-year wait for the premier class championship which dated back to Casey Stoner.

This year, Pecco Bagnaia, Jorge Martin or Marc Marquez will ensure Ducati’s name is again associated with the top prize.

But their eventual decline has been predicted.

TNT Sports’ Neil Hodgson questioned: “Eventually if you draw a graph, is this the top? The sweet spot? Will it start to dwindle?

“Think of the dominance of Honda. It has all changed. My feeling is that Ducati’s peak is next year.

“The factory team will potentially win every race. If Ducati improve this bike…”

In 2025 Marquez will join Bagnaia in a mighty-looking duo for the factory team.

However, their eight-bike presence on the grid will be reduced to six because the Pramac satellite team is exiting to join Yamaha.

Hodgson continued: “The beauty of what Ducati did is that it took years to build the foundation of a great motorcycle. They have rock solid foundations and they have fine tuned and tweaked it.

“The other manufacturers are yet to find their foundation bike.

“The issue is the rule change in 2027. Do you continue throwing £50m per year at it or do you switch to focus on 2027?”

Michael Laverty credited how Ducati turned around the barren spell since Stoner’s 2007 title which included the failed tenures of Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo.

“Look at the 10 years they spend languishing,” Laverty said.

“They acquired data, engineers and experience. Ducati didn’t buy in knowledge, they developed it in-house, they put their engineers through university, they put them on the ground with their teams.

“They spread their teams throughout Superbikes, World Endurance, Supersport, MotoGP.

“Now with four teams and eight riders, they’ve been able to refine the package. It went from having a lot of horsepower but didn’t turn, they got involved in the aero race to lead the way with innovations.

“They changed the game. You’ve got to look back at the acquisition of Gigi Dall’Igna. They built the team around him.

“They did it their own way and this is their time in the sun. Ducati have earned it, they are now the people that everyone wants to match. It’s an engineering feat of genius.”

Why didn’t KTM challenge Ducati?

Pol Espargaro’s wildcard appearance last weekend in Misano was a reminder that KTM still have a lot of development to do before they can regularly challenge Ducati.

“It shows you where KTM are at,” Laverty said.

“They need to utilise someone like Pol as much as they can.

“What we learned about Pol at the recent race was that he has not lost speed or hunger. At times, he was the fastest KTM out there albeit on the new bike.

“The aero looked different. KTM need to find a step. We were hoping they would get closer to Ducati this season but the reality is that they’ve got further away on out-and-out lap time.

“If you look at overall race times compared to this year, KTM are a way further back from the winners.”

Pedro Acosta’s early season form has dwindled.

Next year, KTM will welcome Acosta alongside Brad Binder in their factory team.

The rebranded Tech3 KTM team will be factory-supported with Enea Bastianini and Maverick Vinales riding their bikes.