How Toprak Razgatlioglu can be World Superbike Champion this weekend
The mathematics involved in Toprak Razgatlioglu’s quest for a second WorldSBK crown.
Toprak Razgatlioglu can win the 2024 World Superbike Championship this weekend with some, overall, fairly simple maths.
Razgatlioglu extended his points lead to 39 over Nicolo Bulega two weeks ago at MotorLand Aragon, and with 124 points left available from the two remaining rounds, the Turkish rider can become WorldSBK Champion for the second time at the first of those, in Estoril this weekend.
To do so, Razgatlioglu must leave Estoril with a points advantage of at least 62 points, which is the maximum that are available in a single round of WorldSBK, and therefore all that will be available to be scored in 2024 after this weekend.
Only Bulega and his factory Ducati teammate, Alvaro Bautista, are still within mathematical contention for the title.
Bulega’s 39-point deficit to Razgatlioglu means that the Turkish rider must out-score him by 23 points over the course of this weekend’s Estoril Round.
It’s also a disadvantage that means Razgatlioglu cannot win the title in either Race 1 — after which Razgatlioglu would need to be 99 points clear — or the Superpole Race — after which Razgatlioglu would need to be 87 points clear.
Even if Bulega doesn’t score in either Race 1 or the Superpole Race, the maximum advantage Razgatlioglu could have over him entering Race 2 would be 76 points, which would keep Bulega in mathematical contention in Race 2, but he would need to score 15 points more than Razgatlioglu in Race 2 to remain in contention in Jerez.
The title, then, cannot be won by Razgatlioglu before Race 2 this weekend. But it can be lost by the reigning champion Alvaro Bautista by then.
Bautista currently trails Razgatlioglu 81 points, meaning he needs to out-score the Turkish rider by 20 points over the course of Estoril’s three races this weekend to remain in contention at the final round in Jerez next week.
It also means that, if Razgatlioglu out-scores Bautista by 18 points in Race 1, Bautista will be out of contention. That means, if Razgatlioglu wins Race 1, Bautista must finish at least eighth to remain in mathematical contention at the start of the Superpole Race; or, if Razgatlioglu is second in Race 1, Bautista must finish at least 14th to stay in contention.
Furthermore, if Bautista is out-scored by Razgatlioglu by six points or more across Race 1 and the Superpole Race, he will be mathematically out of contention at the start of Race 2.
So, in summary, the simple maths for Razgatlioglu is that he is 2024 World Superbike Champion if:
He out-scores Nicolo Bulega by 23 points or more over the course of the three races in Estoril, and;
He is not out-scored by Alvaro Bautista by 20 points or more over the course of the three races in Estoril.
The really important number to keep an eye on at the end of this weekend for Razgatlioglu, though, is 62.
If both Bulega and Bautista are 62 points or more adrift at the end of Race 2, Razgatlioglu is champion; but, if one or both of them are 61 or fewer points behind, the title will be decided next week at the final round in Jerez.
