Dive into F1 testing data proves Lando Norris is the man to beat

F1 pre-season testing is done and dusted following three intense days of running at the Bahrain International Circuit. The next stop for the F1 circus is Melbourne for the Australian Grand Prix in just over a week.

Teams will continue to pour over the data as they look to fine-tune their cars for the first race and weigh up their rivals ahead of the new season. While it’s impossible to precisely know where each team is in the F1 pecking order, a clear favourite has emerged.

Lando Norris’ race stint on day two of the Bahrain test was astonishingly quick. A direct comparison to Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Mercedes’ Andrea Kimi Antonelli race simulations highlighted how impressive McLaren looks to be at this early stage.

Oscar Piastri backed this up on day three, who outpaced George Russell during their respective race simulations. The usual caveats remain with regard to power modes and fuel loads. 

But overall, it’s looking ominous for McLaren - and Norris - in particular ahead of Australia.

Lando Norris’ stunning race sim

After a low-key opening day in Bahrain, the second day of testing gave us a glimpse of the state of play at the top of F1. Norris, Leclerc and Antonelli all completed race simulations, with the three drivers opting for a two-stop strategy.

Race pace is the best way to get an accurate read of each team’s performance, given that you know they’re running a similar amount of fuel (around 100kg to start a race). The only difference between the three drivers was the order in which they ran the three hardest compounds. 

Norris opted for C3-C1-C2, while Leclerc and Antonelli also started on the C3s before switching to the C2 and finishing on the C1. On average, Norris was 0.350s quicker than Leclerc and Antonelli during the first stint.

The gap reduced slightly in the second stint as Norris ran on the harder C1 compound - 0.2s over Leclerc and Antonelli. But it was Norris’ astonishing final stint on the C2s, over one second faster than what Leclerc and Antonelli could manage, that turned heads in the Bahrain paddock.

Leclerc and Antonelli were evenly matched, which bodes well for Mercedes because of the Italian’s lack of experience and the fact he hadn’t done a full race simulation before. Still, McLaren’s advantage over their main two rivals was frightening, just under six-tenths on average.

Even if you view Norris’ final stint as an anomaly, whether the track and tyre combination unlocked more lap time from the MCL39, it looks like they have a couple of tenths (at least) over Ferrari and Mercedes. Piastri’s race simulation on the final day was less impressive than Norris’ but still confirmed McLaren’s apparent advantage over Mercedes. 

The Australian was 0.5s faster than Russell in the first stint when both drivers were on the C3 (soft) tyre. However, Piastri and Russell were evenly matched in the other two stints.

Still, it put McLaren’s advantage over Mercedes at around 0.3s. Ferrari didn’t complete a race simulation with Lewis Hamilton as an unknown technical issue curtailed his final day.

Similarly, getting a read on Red Bull was difficult with Liam Lawson in the car for the entire day on Thursday. When it was Max Verstappen’s turn in the car, the RB21 looked tricky to drive, with the Dutchman spinning at Turn 1 before laying down some rubber on the track as he stamped on the throttle in frustration.

Verstappen would go on to set the second-fastest time of the day, but without a full race simulation under his belt, it’s difficult to know where Red Bull are in the pecking order heading into Australia. Speaking after the final day, the Dutchman was frank when reviewing Red Bull’s test in Bahrain.

“I don’t expect us to be the fastest, of course, at all,” he said.

Not all rosy at McLaren

It would be unfair to say that things are 100 per cent perfect at McLaren despite their impressive race pace. Rear instability appears to be the MCL39’s main weakness, surfacing during the morning session on day three.

Norris had several oversteer moments as he struggled with rear-end stability. While he wasn’t the only driver to suffer from this amid the higher track temperatures and the additional strain it was putting on the tyres, it’s clear that McLaren isn’t completely at one with the race track at this stage, offering a glimmer of hope to their rivals.

Testing in Bahrain was unusually cool with temperatures consistently below 20 degrees Celsius. Hotter temperatures in Melbourne with a completely different track layout - low downforce and longer straights - might mean the form guide shown in Bahrain testing isn’t a reality.

McLaren are certainly in the best place to start an F1 season since 2012, when they finished 1-3 in the season opener at Albert Park. Behind them, Mercedes and Ferrari were closely matched throughout the three days in Bahrain.

The big question mark remains Red Bull, with the RB21 looking difficult to set up, as was the case with its predecessor. Alpine and Williams look set to duel it out at the front of F1’s midfield.

Williams grabbed the headline times, with Carlos Sainz setting the pace on the second day of testing. Alpine appear to be in a solid spot - night and day compared to 12 months ago.

Aston Martin were plagued with chronic understeer on the final day - and could be set for a difficult season. Haas’ test was dominated by heavy fuel running, while Racing Bulls and Sauber appeared to be the two weakest cars on track in Sakhir.

Lando Norris’ golden opportunity

While many view 2024 as a missed opportunity for Norris, 2025 is a golden one. With McLaren set to start the year as the team to beat, Norris must capitalise to ensure he’s not the ‘chaser’ in the fight again. 

Norris has proven capable of leading from pole position and converting it into Sebastian Vettel-style dominant wins in F1 - think Zandvoort or Singapore. His victory in Abu Dhabi was arguably more impressive as he dealt with the pressure of the two Ferraris behind to take McLaren to their first constructors’ title since 1998.

The 25-year-old’s flaws were apparent, however. Norris showed naivety in wheel-to-wheel combat on multiple occasions, particularly on opening laps and against Verstappen.

If Norris tidies up these areas, as he seemed to do in the final third of the season (Brazil aside). In that case, it’s hard to see anyone stopping him, especially given McLaren’s apparent pace advantage. 

This is F1, though, and maybe we’re in for a surprise or two in Australia.