Long run data analysis establishes McLaren and Ferrari pecking order in Australia

Pre-season testing in Bahrain had placed McLaren well and truly out in front, thanks to the speed MCL39 was able to show in race simulations.

And while the nine-lap run Lando Norris managed towards the end of FP2 on Friday afternoon did put McLaren at the head of the order, the gap to the rest is much smaller than many had expected.

In fact there was little to separate Norris and Mercedes’ George Russell over long runs, with both able to maintain their pace on worn rubber.

Norris was able to set a best time of 1m21.474s at the very end of his nine-lap stint, averaging 1m21.920s. Russell completed a longer run in the final 30 minutes and, while it was disrupted by two very slow laps, he too was able to lap in mid-to-high 1m21s towards the finish.

McLaren lead Ferrari in F1 Australian GP Practice

Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari was a tenth slower on average than both Norris and Russell, but the Monegasque was also the only driver to set a lap in the 1m30s bracket in a long run.

Remarkably, he set his quickest time on the penultimate lap of his 11-lap stint, showing his tyres were still in good condition when he headed back to the pits.

Red Bull wasn’t too far from the front either, although Max Verstappen’s relatively short stint with just six representative laps makes it harder to compare the findings.

He managed just a single lap below the 1m22s mark, but it was set on his last tour around the circuit, indicating there is more to come from the RB21.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli and Lewis Hamilton’s average times were fractionally slower than Verstappen’s, while Oscar Piastri was also not too far behind in the McLaren.

As was the case with Ferrari teammate Leclerc, Hamilton also turned heads by lapping the circuit in 1m21.297s towards the end of the run, when most others were struggling to dip below the 1m21.5s mark during their race sims.

Long-run pace puts Williams at the head of the midfield order, courtesy of Carlos Sainz, while Yuki Tsunoda (Racing Bulls) and Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber) also put on a strong show for their respective teams. Hulkenberg’s pace particularly came as a surprise after a tough showing for Sauber in pre-season testing.

Alpine could also be in the mix with Jack Doohan showing reasonable pace in his race sim, although the Australian’s times did drop off significantly at the end of his stint.

Fernando Alonso’s long run got off to a slow start, but he was able to lap consistently in 1m22s thereafter, which should provide some encouragement for Aston Martin.

Haas had a disastrous start to the year as Oliver Bearman shunted his car in FP1 and missed FP2, while Esteban Ocon finished near the bottom on both a single lap and over long runs.

With the threat of rain on Sunday, teams face a tough decision to make regarding set-up before qualifying. Some might go for a high-downforce layout, while others may trim their wings in order to get more speed down the straights.

And with Albert Park Circuit a bit of a outlier on the calendar, it’s likely that the real pecking order won’t be revealed until the next round in China.