Who would replace Liam Lawson if Red Bull wield axe?

Liam Lawson’s future at Red Bull is already in jeopardy just two races into the 2025 F1 season.

Red Bull are understood to be seriously considering replacing Lawson amid his concerning struggles following a dreadful start to the season.

The 23-year-old Kiwi was chosen to replace Sergio Perez for 2025 but is yet to score a point for Red Bull, and has been eliminated in Q1 in all three qualifying sessions he has contested.

Following another miserable outing at the Chinese Grand Prix, Lawson’s future is said to be hanging in the balance.

Red Bull have history of making ruthless driver decisions and aren’t shy to wield the axe, but who would replace Lawson if he were to get the chop?

Yuki Tsunoda

Racing Bulls driver Yuki Tsunoda is the clear favourite to replace Lawson.

Reports suggest Red Bull are weighing up an immediate swap of Lawson for Tsunoda as soon as the Japanese Grand Prix, the next round of the season.

24-year-old Tsunoda was initially overlooked by Red Bull for a 2025 seat, with the team instead opting to go with his less experienced former teammate Lawson.

Despite Lawson only making 11 grand prix appearances for Racing Bulls spread over two short spells in 2023 and 2024, Red Bull cited the New Zealander’s mental resilience as a key factor in their decision.

Tsunoda has enjoyed a fine start to the season with Red Bull’s sister team. While outright results do not look great on paper, those have largely been dictated by poor team strategy calls.

The Japanese driver qualified a stunning fifth on the grid at the opening round in Australia, eighth for the sprint race in China and ninth for Sunday’s full-length grand prix.

Tsunoda insists he feels “100%” ready to replace the under-pressure Lawson and would jump at the opportunity to do so from his home race at Suzuka.

Isack Hadjar

While the more experienced Tsunoda looks to be in pole position for a promotion should Red Bull drop Lawson, his Racing Bulls teammate Isack Hadjar cannot be discounted either.

Hadjar, the 2024 Formula 2 runner-up, has impressed in his first two F1 weekends. He impressively bounced back from his heartbreaking crash in Melbourne to put in a mighty qualifying performance in Shanghai.

The 20-year-old Frenchman claimed a superb seventh on the grid at the Chinese Grand Prix and outpaced teammate Tsunoda by 0.559s. Although he could not convert a top-10 starting position into points on Sunday, he has still caught the eye at Red Bull.

Speaking about Hadjar’s qualifying display in China, Red Bull’s Helmut Marko opened the door to him being a potential option. 

“Let’s look at the positives: Isack Hadjar, who has never driven on this track before, is banging out incredible times in his second race, making no mistakes,” the Red Bull advisor told Sky Germany.

“What he has shown so far is absolutely fascinating. The sun [Hadjar] and the shadow [Lawson] are close together and we’ll see what happens.”

This would be a risky move for Red Bull and would pile unnecessary pressure on another one of their rising stars. Considering that, Tsunoda surely represents the most logical option.

What about Franco Colapinto?

In an interesting development, Franco Colapinto has emerged as a shock contender to join Racing Bulls in the event Lawson is dropped. 

While a straight swap between Lawson and Tsunoda feels like the most likely outcome if Red Bull pull the trigger, they may also choose to take Lawson out of the spotlight altogether by benching him as their reserve driver.

If Red Bull opted to do this, they would need a driver to take the vacated Racing Bulls seat. Step forward current Alpine reserve Colapinto.

Reports in Spanish media have linked Colapinto to Racing Bulls after Marko was seen visiting Alpine’s hospital in Shanghai on Sunday.

Colapinto is waiting in the wings at Alpine to potentially replace Jack Doohan and return to the F1 grid after his starring cameo with Williams late last year, but he could be a candidate for Red Bull to place in their sister team.

Intriguingly, Colapinto's early Williams form in 2024 put the Argentine youngster on Red Bull's radar before a string of crashes saw their interest cool.