F1 Testing Analysis: Times tumble, but has the status quo changed?

Six days down, two to go. Formula 1’s pre-season testing schedule in Barcelona is starting to wind down, yet after the freezing conditions that marred much of last week’s running, we are only just starting to see the teams and drivers stretch the legs of their new cars.

Can we read much into the times? “Pinch of salt,” blah blah blah, “too early to tell,” blah blah blah, “don’t know what they’re running" - all true to some extent. It’s tricky to truly peg where the pace-setters are right now.

Alas, we saw some familiar names at the top of the timesheets once again on day two of the second test as times began to tumble. Lewis Hamilton’s benchmark from last week was beaten early in the day, with the track record eventually going as well. Daniel Ricciardo’s lap of 1:18.047 was three-tenths of a second quicker than Felipe Massa’s effort from testing in 2008, completed on slick tyres for Ferrari - but only scratched the surface of the time gains that may follow.

Times in Barcelona have been far quicker this year than in the past, even eclipsing the efforts from last year’s pre-season testing. The new-style cars for 2017 were always predicted to get close to Massa’s time, with Kimi Raikkonen eventually lapping three-tenths off with the best effort set before the start of last season.

But a number of factors have combined to allow lap time to get significantly quicker for 2018 despite the cars largely being an evolution of what raced last year.

Pirelli’s step in tyre compounds has been a contributing factor. In a bid to move away from the one-stop races we saw through much of 2017, Pirelli made an added step in all of its compounds. Last year’s soft is essentially this year’s medium, as one example. F1’s tyre supplier also introduced the new hypersoft compound, which has been in use through testing so far, even if it is only likely to appear at street circuits such as Monaco and Singapore through the season.

But the greater factor in the rise in pace has been the resurfacing of the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. Gone is the old, bumpy layout that required the harder tyres, instead being replaced by  a smooth track. The move caught some of the teams out who had set their testing tyre allocations before being informed that the track would be resurfaced, but most have still been able to complete a decent amount of running.

Ricciardo's lap was the first hint of what may be possible when the cars are at full pelt in May. Pirelli’s early prediction was that drivers could be getting into the 1:17s by that stage - but given we’re already less than one-tenth off that region without really seeing the full potential of the cars, it could be we get there sooner rather than later.

“There’s great grip [on the hypersoft] so I think all the drivers have got smiles on their faces after we use that tyre,” said Toro Rosso’s Brendon Hartley.

“It will be interesting to see how that plays out in qualifying during the year because it doesn’t have the durability of the other tyres. If you qualified on it and started the race on it, it could mix things up a bit.”

It’s the kind of pace territory that McLaren could only dream of reaching at the moment. Yesterday’s testing analysis focused on the struggles the team faced with its reliability, drawing comparisons to last year’s woes with Honda as it faced three stoppages through the day.

Fernando Alonso made a positive start to Wednesday as he hit the top of the timesheets briefly, with his effort good enough for P6 at the end of the day. But that would be as good as it would get as an oil leak caused Alonso to come to a stop at the side of the track just over two hours into the day.

McLaren brushed off the issue, with racing director Eric Boullier saying the process to change the engine should be completed by around 3pm local time. 3pm came and went, and there was still no sign of Alonso. It wasn’t until 5:47pm - a full six hours and 37 minutes since returning to the pit lane - that the Spaniard was finally back out on-track, getting in a handful of laps before the day was run.

Admittedly it was the first time McLaren had completed an engine change with a Renault power unit, but the delays only added to the growing doubts in the paddock about the team’s chances this year. McLaren now sits bottom of the F1 mileage charts after six days of testing.

“The car broke down, yes,” Boullier said. “It’s testing, so we have some little issues which we have to fix, but it's just testing. It's part of the process.

“We are on top of this. It's a new partnership with Renault, completely new packaging for the car as well. This is testing. Give us time, and it's fine.”

“in terms of fundamental answers that we need over the winter test, they are already OK and we have all of them,” added Alonso. “So I don’t need the last day to be honest. I will be in the car, I will drive – hopefully we will keep discovering new things on the car.

“But if Australia was tomorrow, it’s OK.”

Despite McLaren’s brave face, the early suggestion from testing is that the status quo of F1 from the end of 2017 will go relatively unchanged - and that may even go for McLaren, once again stuck in the midfield. Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull seem to be clear as the top three, with Renault continuing its position as being the fourth-quickest team from the end of last year, racking up some impressive mileage in the process.

The midfield hodgepodge looks set to sustain with the likes of Williams, Force India and Haas all scrapping together with McLaren also in the fray. Toro Rosso seems to be in that mix too after a solid showing from Hartley as he took fifth at the end of the day and completed 119 laps despite losing a bit of time due to a sensor issue.

“We made up for lost time at the end with a couple of long runs on high fuel and getting to know this STR13 more and more,” Hartley said.

“I hadn’t driven since day one so that was a really productive day for me so it was nice to see how we progressed from day one on test one.

“I haven’t been through the data yet as I’ve just jumped out of the car. We had to make up for a little bit of lost time, but I think it was pretty productive.

“We’re battling in the midfield there somewhere, but we’re definitely in the fight.”

The times may have tumbled, but the way things are looking right now, we’re not going to see the kind of surprise change from last year that McLaren craved - and unlike last year, this most certainly cannot be pinned on Honda…