Toto Wolff predicts Mercedes F1 rivals will have “performance advantage” early on

Toto Wolff expects Mercedes’ main rivals to have a “performance advantage” early on in the 2025 F1 season.

The 2025 F1 season officially kicks off this weekend with the first race at the Australian Grand Prix.

After three days of pre-season testing at the end of February, the true pecking order is unclear due to the unusually cool conditions in Bahrain.

Mercedes arguably enjoyed their best test since 2020, with the W16 looking hooked up on track.

According to the race simulations from the Bahrain test, Mercedes were second-fastest behind McLaren, although the usual caveats apply.

Despite a strong test, Wolff has predicted Ferrari, Red Bull, and McLaren “in particular” to have the edge in the early races.

“With George and Kimi, two homegrown talents from our junior programme graduates, we have a strong driver line-up that combines experience, youth, and raw speed,” Wolff said. “It is an exciting duo that will lead us into our next era.

“As a team, we had an uphill challenge over the winter. Our competitors finished 2024 strongly and we know that Ferrari, Red Bull, and McLaren in particular, should have a performance advantage over us initially.

“We can be pleased with the work we have done in the off-season, and the test in Bahrain. Both drivers commented favourably on the W16 after the three days, and we seem to have made improvements.

“Of course, the only thing that matters is how we measure up against the stopwatch relative to our competitors. We will certainly begin to get a clearer picture on that this weekend.”

A new era for Mercedes without Lewis Hamilton

Mercedes will race in Australia without Lewis Hamilton for the first time since 2012.

18-year-old wonderkid Andrea Kimi Antonelli will make his F1 debut this weekend for Mercedes after Wolff chose the Italian over a number of experienced options, including Carlos Sainz, as Hamilton’s replacement.

George Russell will spearhead the team after an impressive 2024 campaign where he dismantled Hamilton, particularly in qualifying.

Russell feels he’s ready to win a world title and has shown he’s not afraid to go head-to-head with reigning F1 champion Max Verstappen.

Mercedes have struggled for consistency since the start of the ground effect era in 2022.

The big question mark over their pace in pre-season testing was that it took place in cooler conditions.

Mercedes often thrived when it was colder in 2024 - but struggled when it was hot.