Ducati faced with major management headache after Silverstone battle

With 10 rounds left in the 2024 MotoGP season, the top four positions in the standings are occupied by Ducati riders: Jorge Martin, Francesco Bagnaia, Enea Bastianini and Marc Marquez. 

Maverick Vinales is the nearest non-Ducati rider in fifth, but the Aprilia rider is 111 points off the lead and 49 behind Marquez.

At this stage of the campaign, after a British Grand Prix in which Ducati locked out the podium for a record seventh consecutive round, it’s unthinkable that any rider not on a Desmosedici will be crowned world champion now.

Coming into the British GP, momentum appeared to be with reigning double world champion Bagnaia. He’d won four grands prix on the bounce ahead of the summer break and took a 10-point lead in the standings after Martin crashed out of the German GP on the penultimate lap while on course to break Bagnaia’s streak.

Both have made critical errors at points in 2024, with Bagnaia’s crash out of the lead of the sprint at Barcelona on the last lap allowing Martin a fairly commanding championship advantage of 41 points. 

At this stage, Bagnaia - who has proven mistake-prone across his two title campaigns - appeared to be fumbling. But his rebound across the Catalan, Italian, Dutch and German GPs coincided with Martin crashing out of the Mugello sprint and his aforementioned Sachsenring stumble.

Crucially, Martin didn’t seem to know what was causing those falls. At Silverstone he suggested a change in mystery part to help under braking which the rest of the Ducati stable had been using was the solution. He didn’t crash all weekend, so at least on face value this has proven to be the case.

Bagnaia appearing to have the championship momentum within the Ducati stable was something the Italian marque needed as it plots its way through the rest of the season. 

With Martin leaving for Aprilia, having been subject to a U-turn by Ducati management when it decided to promote Marquez to its factory team, it is inconceivable that the brand would allow him to take the #1 plate with him.

During World Ducati Week last month, Martin told GPOne that: "These future changes have brought us [myself and Pramac] closer together as a team. It's not that we are alone, but we are certainly more alone than in past seasons. Before, we were sure that we would continue with Ducati, we could easily get over many things. Now, as a team, we have to unite even more to give 100%.”

Ducati has pledged its continued support for Martin’s cause with Pramac for the rest of the year, with sporting director Mauro Grassilli telling Motorsprint that it would “respect contracts”. That’s the public line: it’s hard to imagine these being the conversations being had behind the scenes.

The problem Ducati has now, though, is that Martin and Pramac remain strong. But there is little it can do to influence the on-track dynamic. It’s decision to give Martin the cold shoulder also ended its ties with Pramac, who will partner up with Yamaha from next year. Ducati has always been against manufacturer orders, insisting over the last two years that its stable is free to fight in races so long as its clean.

Even if it wanted to at any point in 2024, Martin and Pramac have nothing binding them to adhere to any official instructions. Bagnaia has always wanted to win titles without assistance, but it seems in 2024 he’ll really have to back this philosophy.

Martin emerges from the British GP three points clear in the championship, having finished second in both the sprint and grand prix. Bagnaia wiped out his own advantage when he crashed through his own error in the sprint and struggled to third in the grand prix owing to the medium front tyre not supporting him in the way he needs, which led to him chewing up his rear rubber.

After all of that momentum overturning nearly 50 points between Barcelona and Germany, Bagnaia is effectively back at square one. Internal title management, then, becomes harder for Ducati again.

Complicating matters further is Bastianini. The #23 was never realistically in the hunt to keep his factory Ducati seat beyond this year. Almost sent to Pramac for this season had Martin won the 2023 title, any kind of form bounce at the start of the current campaign wasn’t likely to move the needle. 

Back-to-back podiums in Portugal and America certainly proved the GP24 suited him better and that his form last year really was circumstantial. But when Ducati’s decision came on its 2025 line-up, Bastianini being the odd man out wasn’t a surprise.

Since that point, however, he has stepped up. He snatched second from Martin on the last lap of the Italian GP; was third at the Dutch GP; fourth in Germany and did the double at Silverstone last weekend for the first time since the sprint format was introduced.

After the first six rounds, Bastianini had scored 94 points and was on a scoring average of 15.6 points per round. In the four rounds since, he has scored 98, bringing his points per round average up to 19.2 having now amassed 192.

By comparison, championship leader Martin in that same four-round stretch (covering Italy to Britain) has scored 86 points; Bagnaia 122 and Marquez 65. Bastianini is now just 49 points down on Martin in the standings with 370 up for grabs in the remainder of 2024.

The second half of the season features numerous venues where Bastianini has previously shone, while two events taking place at Misano courtesy of Kazakhstan’s cancellation are likely to favour the 26-year-old more than most.

“For the moment, I don't think I'm a title contender,” Bastianini said after the British GP. “Pecco and Jorge have demonstrated more consistency than me in every race and these two riders are always on top.

“Sometimes I have felt something but been behind. If I want to be a title contender I have to improve in that direction.”

Ahead of the British GP, Bastianini said he needed to work on bettering his qualifying. Having averaged around seventh on the grid for 2024 after 10 rounds, third at Silverstone was a strong indicator that he has figured out how to fix this weakness. If that can carry on, his Silverstone race pace proved that his current assessment of his title credentials will ultimately be seen as modest.

Ducati couldn’t hide its delight when Bastianini took the chequered flag. But his upturn in form in recent rounds has only worsened the manufacturer’s predicament. It is now facing the very real prospect that it could be celebrating a world champion it deemed not worthy enough of racing for the brand beyond this year.

As much as Ducati can’t allow Martin to take the #1 plate to Aprilia, it will also be a bad look if Bastianini swings his leg over a KTM bearing the same number.

Bagnaia has rallied against adversity before in his two previous title-winning seasons and Marquez’s history speaks for itself: Make no mistake, Ducati’s 2025 factory team line-up is easily the best on the grid. Its decision is wholly justifiable.

But that won’t stop the optics being bad if either Martin or Bastianini win in 2024. And there’s not much it can do to stop this either. If Martin isn’t going to adhere to any manufacturer orders, Bastianini also has no reason to do so.

To boot, Ducati really ought to have given an instruction to Bagnaia during the British GP to let Bastianini through sooner, such was his pace. On the lap Martin passed Bagnaia, the latter posted a 1m59.9s versus a 1m59.1s for Bastianini. On the following tour, Bastianini was just under half a second quicker.

For the time being, Bastianini beating Martin is better for Ducati in the context of 2025 than him finishing ahead of Bagnaia. After all, it was Bastianini who stopped Martin taking an 11-point championship lead over Bagnaia and limited it to just three.

Bastianini’s renewed form is an asset for Ducati, but any continuation of that, particularly to the detriment of Bagnaia’s championship challenge, is going to force some serious soul searching among management: does it try everything in its power to manage the issue in Bagnaia’s favour, or does it accept a third-successive riders’ crown with the bitterness that it’s come at the hands of a rider it turned away?

The PR mess of the latter outcome is something Bastianini nodded to in Sunday’s post-race press conference: “I don't understand Ducati's choice because they have lost two riders like me and Jorge.”

As fantastic as the title battle has been on-track, this intriguing subplot will be a defining factor…