Ducati have a big problem - but it’s an even bigger headache for everybody else

There are always a million caveats attached to pre-season testing in MotoGP, making any real analysis of track action virtually impossible. But reading between the lines often throws up some tangibles clues to the order of things.

At the end of the three-day Sepang test, it was very much as you were from the end of last year. Alex Marquez, on the Gresini-run GP24, was fastest outright with a 1m56.493s, which was 0.156s shy of the all-time lap record set by Francesco Bagnaia in qualifying for the last season’s Malaysian Grand Prix.

Ducati occupied four of the top five spots on the combined standings, with Alex Marquez shadowed by Bagnaia, with VR46’s Franco Morbidelli fourth on a GP24 and Marc Marquez fifth on the factory Ducati.

In terms of pure performance, Ducati holds a considerable advantage based on the best laps from each manufacturer.

Fastest times per manufacturer

1. Ducati - 1m56.493s (Alex Marquez)
2. Yamaha - 1m56.724s (Fabio Quartararo)
3. KTM - 1m57.175s (Pedro Acosta)
4. Honda - 1m57.279s (Joan Mir)
5. Aprilia - 1m57.328s (Marco Bezzecchi)

On time attack laps, there is a field spread of 0.835s covering the five manufacturers. In Aprilia’s defence, it had to complete the Sepang test with both reigning world champion Jorge Martin and Trackhouse Racing’s Raul Fernandez - the only return Aprilia rider in 2025 - sidelined with injuries. So the bulk of the work was shouldered by Marco Bezzecchi, rookie Ai Ogura and test rider Lorenzo Savadori.

That said, Bezzecchi’s best time attack lap was 0.718s quicker than the fastest Aprilia in qualifying for the 2024 Malaysian GP and put him inside the top 10 on the test timesheets. And that was despite the Italian feeling like, in his first proper qualifying lap on the RS-GP, he didn’t have confidence in himself to push the bike to its limits.

And while Yamaha’s progress across the test looks genuine, the “unreal” levels of grip - as Marc Marquez tagged it - on the final day also somewhat skew things. 

The M1 still hasn’t quit touched on its rear grip problems and a high level of rubber on track will almost certainly mask this. Also, Yamaha had two extra days of running with its race riders at the shakedown. Still, finding 0.868s on its fastest ever Sepang lap set last November is seriously impressive and something Bagnaia alluded to at the end of the test.

“I think that we will have a switch in terms of who will be behind Ducati during this season; I think Yamaha did a very good job.”

Ducati GP24 impresses in Sepang

The performance of the GP24 is not surprising. It’s the bike that won 19 of the 20 grands prix last season, including the Malaysian GP, and is fully dialled in. Alex Marquez and Franco Morbidelli have nothing to do but simply ride the bike and improve their own feelings on it rather than carry out any development work.

That’s a major advantage that has seen year-old Ducati riders find early season success in MotoGP. Enea Bastianini won three of his four grands prix in 2022 on the GP21 inside the first seven rounds; Bezzecchi won two of his three on the GP22 in 2023 inside the first five grands prix.

So, it was also no surprise to see Alex Marquez leading the way when it came to sprint simulations on the final day of running.

Sepang test day three sprint simulation average

1. Alex Marquez - 1m57.901s (10 laps)
2. Marc Marquez - 1m57.929s (10 laps)
3. Fabio Quartararo - 1m58.031s (6 laps)
4. Francesco Bagnaia - 1m58.242s (10 laps)
5. Fermin Aldeguer - 1m58.580s (8 laps)
6. Pedro Acosta - 1m58.596s (10 laps)
7. Marco Bezzecchi - 1m58.766s (10 laps)

Alex Marquez’s sprint simulation was 0.595s faster on average than the pace Jorge Martin put in to win the 2024 Malaysian GP sprint. Marc Marquez’s was 0.567s faster. While grip levels certainly play a major factor in this, it’s an impressive step nevertheless - not least for Marc Marquez.

His average pace on his way to second in last year’s Sepang sprint on the Gresini-run GP23 was 1m58.550s. The eight-time world champion won three grands prix on the much-maligned GP23 last season and finished third in the championship, considerably so over the next-best GP23 runner - 219 points clear.

One of the biggest what-ifs of 2024 was what could Marquez have done on a GP24 alongside Bagnaia and Martin. That question has been offered a partial answer after the Sepang test, though where Ducati sits with its 2025 bike remains something of a mystery.

Engine headache at Ducati

Much of the focus of the Sepang test has been on comparing the GP25 engine with the GP24. A two-year engine freeze comes into effect for non-concession manufacturers as of the Thai Grand Prix, and so the decision made now is crucial. 

Complicating Ducati’s works is the fact the GP24 base is so good that a clear difference has to be seen from the GP25 engine before it’s homologated.

Marquez - who had his first crash as a factory Ducati rider on Thursday - was tight-lipped on what bike he used for his sprint simulation, stating only: “Was a mix. Was with the aero of 2024, the rest you cannot see… So, for that reason I say only the aero.” 

Team-mate Bagnaia said Ducati went with “two different configurations” of bike to maximise data gathering.

As a result, he feels his pace wasn’t representative as “I wasn’t that happy during it because something came out, I was having a bit of vibration - was not the same as last year, but lap-by-lap it was getting worse.” 

Bagnaia also only had one shot at a time attack and doesn’t believe he got the best out of it, even if he was only 0.007s off Alex Marquez’s best lap and over half a second clear of team-mate Marc Marquez.

This isn’t the first pre-season that Ducati has been unsure about engine specification. 

On the eve of the 2022 campaign, Bagnaia elected to switch the factory bikes to a hybrid 2021/2022 motor as the full 2022 version caused him too many problems in testing with his riding style. That proved to be a sensible move as Bagnaia won the championship, while the Pramac duo who had to run the full 2022 engine struggled.

This isn’t quite the same scenario for Ducati, but Marquez notes the 2024 base the brand has is “difficult to improve” and continues to urge caution in the direction it settles on.

“You have to be sure it’s better, because you know with the 2024 you can fight for the championship 100%," he said. 

"So, it’s there where we tried many things because it’s not only engine, it’s not only aero. It’s many small things that today we worked more on the small details and tried to understand which piece is better and which piece is worse.”

Alex Marquez’s pace on the GP24 will undoubtedly add to the uncertainty in the direction Ducati wants to go down, though neither rider felt this would influence things, with Bagnaia noting that testing a factory bike always takes away some performance initially.

Two final days of testing in Buriram will be crucial for a decision that will impact the next two seasons for Ducati, but it doesn’t appear as if there is a downside: it will either race a proven championship-winning engine, or race an evolution of one.

Either way, Ducati’s advantage in the pecking order remains even if there are signs that competition is getting stronger…