Analysis: Pecco Bagnaia isn’t “ready” to fight Marc Marquez in Argentina MotoGP

We are only one round into the 2025 MotoGP season, but already every move Pecco Bagnaia makes is being heavily scrutinised in contrast to what his factory Ducati team-mate Marc Marquez is doing.

A mountain was made out of a molehill after FP1 on Friday at the Argentina Grand Prix after Marquez led the way while Bagnaia struggled to 16th, 1.351s adrift. Grip levels on a Friday morning at Termas de Rio Hondo are always poor, let alone when there are damp patches on the surface from overnight rain.

Conditions that Marquez excels in, it was little wonder he led the way from LCR Honda’s Johann Zarco. The hour-long Practice saw Bagnaia make a significant lap time gain, but again he thrust himself into the merciless spotlight when he crashed at Turn 2 as he wound up for a time attack lap in the final six minutes of the session.

Sitting inside the top six at this point, his 1m37.834s lap time was good but not comfortably so to guarantee him a place inside Q2. Thus followed an anxious wait as he saw his name trickle down the order to the outer reaches of the top 10. He was able to make amends for it last time in Thailand, but a second consecutive Q1 appearance - this one fully of his own doing - simply wasn’t acceptable.

Fortunately for Bagnaia, he survived the late onslaught on the timesheets to sneak through to Q2 by 0.021s over Trackhouse Aprilia rookie Ai Ogura.

Marquez, meanwhile, topped the day with a new all-time lap record of 1m37.295s. He wasn’t the first rider to breach the 1m37.683s old record Marquez set in 2014 - the very first Argentina GP at Termas de Rio Hondo - when he was with Honda: that honour went to Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi, who summited the timing screen with just under 15 minutes to go with a 1m37.510s.

But Marquez just looked throughout the afternoon that he had it well within him to better whatever lap time anyone could throw at him. And so he did.

Pecco Bagnaia makes a breakthrough, but it’s not enough right now

Bagnaia didn’t make much of an effort to hide his unhappiness at the end of a Thai Grand Prix weekend in which he was thoroughly outclassed by not just one Marquez, but both of them. In some revealing behind-the-scenes footage posted by the official MotoGP website, a sore Bagnaia declares he’s ‘not here to finish third’ as Ducati management tried to reassure him.

When he arrived at Termas de Rio Hondo, some 1100km away from Argentina’s capital city Buenos Aires, on Thursday he laid the blame for his Thailand woes on “something beyond our control”. He didn’t elaborate.

Friday morning in Argentina saw him battle the same problem he faced in Argentina, which was under braking. In the afternoon, however, Bagnaia cut a more positive figure as he claimed some changes the team made finally gave him back the braking feeling he’d been missing.

“We did a good step in terms of set-up of the bike, and it helped me a lot,” he said. “Happy because I finally feel much better better on braking and entering [corner].”

Defiantly, Bagnaia declared he is “ready to fight”. Certainly, his current standing is better than tenth: he believes he could have shaved at least another three tenths off his best lap had it not been for his Practice crash. Ifs and buts don’t count for much, and that kind of gain would only just get him knocking on the door of the top five - still someway off team-mate Marquez.

After the Thai GP, Marquez said it was the best he’d felt on a bike since the 2020 Spanish GP - the fateful race in which he badly broke his arm, and in the process changed Honda's destiny and that of his own.

Though he felt he needed time on Friday morning to better set up his Ducati’s electronics for his “unique” engine braking requests due to his lack of data with the bike at Termas de Rio Hondo, Marquez again noted that his GP25 felt “predictable”.

Marquez hasn’t raced in Argentina since 2019, but the championship leader’s form in Thailand - backed up by his practice pace on Friday in South America - has many fearing a repeat of what he did six years ago. On that day, he won by almost 10 seconds, but was over 12s clear of the rest of the field when he started the final lap and by the third tour was three seconds up the road.

The Marquez of 2025 continues to show his speed, but remains cautious.

“Alex [Marquez] one more time is super strong here; he will be there,” he told the official MotoGP website when asked who he considered a threat “[Fabio] Di Giannantonio also did a very good lap, on the pace he is a bit further but I think he will be close. Pecco [Bagnaia], he crashed but he’s fast, and then [Marco] Bezzecchi. Bezzecchi we know won here in 2023, and Aprilia is also working good here in the past. So, I expect a strong Bezzecchi.”

Aprilia’s Bezzecchi was fourth overall and led the Aprilia charge on Friday. His soft tyre pace was the best of the field at an average of 1m38.169s, based on a five-lap sample size where unrepresentative times were removed.

That is considerably quicker than Marquez at 1m38.525s over a four-lap run. However, Marquez - unlike most in the top 10 - worked more on used rubber. At the end of his time with the soft rear, it had done 10 laps. Only second-placed Fabio Di Giannantonio on the VR46 Ducati had done more (12) and his average pace was slower at 1m38.717s.

As far as medium tyre running goes, Marquez - again over four laps - was well clear of the rest. Though not doing any worn rubber analysis with this compound, he was four tenths quicker on average than nearest rival Alex Marquez (Gresini Ducati) on the same tyre.

Honda’s Johann Zarco impressed here, managing 1m38.665s across a seven-lap sample with a tyre that had 10 laps on it by the end of his run. It’s for good reason the LCR rider is confident he has podium pace this weekend.

For Bagnaia, he’s in the mix but not to be on terms with Marc Marquez yet. On soft rubber, his average pace was just under 0.3s slower than his team-mate’s, while his medium tyre form (albeit with a slender sample of just two representative laps) was half a second down.

How the Rio Hondo track continues to evolve will be crucial in how the pecking order shuffles over the next two days. But all signs once again point to Marquez having a clear advantage over the rest of the field and Bagnaia facing another weekend of damage limitation…