Why COTA MotoGP round could be Pecco Bagnaia’s toughest test of the year

For a very brief moment on Friday at the 2025 MotoGP Americas Grand Prix, there was hope that maybe Marc Marquez won’t have things his own way. After his perfect start to the new campaign on the factory Ducati, he has come to a stomping ground of his in the Circuit of the Americas fully expected by all to dominate.

Seven wins between 2013 and 2021, most on less-than-brilliant Honda machinery, and the latter practically with use of only one of his arms, make it easy to predict a Marc Marquez walkover.

He moved to diffuse this pressure on Thursday, keenly pointing out that his “best” 2019 season had just one blot on it - and that was his crash out of the lead of the Americas GP. As far as Marquez is concerned, he wants to expect the absolute worst at COTA in order to not let his own ego get the better of him.

“I try to think in a negative way to avoid that extra confidence that can create a situation that we don't like,” he said. “So let's see how we start, let's see where are the opponents and from that point try to do our best.”

And he started in not ideal fashion. While the wet conditions of FP1 on Friday didn’t prove a hindrance to his speed, they did lead to him having his first crash this season as a factory Ducati rider. The rear of his GP25 came round on him going through the Turn 2 right-hander just as he picked up the throttle again and sent him over top.

It was a relatively light landing and the acres of run-off area allowed him to slide to a gentle halt. He returned to the session, but was only third at the chequered flag. He later admitted that he was “riding as if there was no water”, owning up to his mistake. At last, it was proven Marc Marquez is human.

But if his rivals went into their lunch break confident in this thought, it was shattered in a wet-to-dry Practice that afternoon.

Setting the early pace from the off, Marquez was frightfully fast when the switch to slicks came. Triggered by Jack Miller’s launch up to first with a 2m12.613s on his opening gambit on the dry tyres, Marquez soon joined the rest of the field in switching rubber and the ominousness was soon felt.

Marquez ended the session over seven tenths clear of a field dominated by Ducatis, with the top five positions locked out by the Italian marque’s machinery. The one rider unable to complete the set down in 10th just so happened to be Marquez’s team-mate Pecco Bagnaia.

Hope for Pecco Bagnaia, but not enough

The heat hasn’t really been off Bagnaia since the start of the season, and coming to the third round of the campaign it really looked like he was already waving the white flag. After a hammering in Argentina in which he was 5.5s off Marquez in fourth, Bagnaia told the media that he was considering reverting to the GP24 from America in order to try to recapture what he had last year when he won an astounding 11 grands prix.

On Thursday at COTA he backtracked on these comments, claiming that he misspoke in English and didn’t convey what he meant - which was that he was looking to restore the feelings of the GP24 on the new bike, not ditch it.

Regardless of what he says, it’s hard not to look at this as frustrations already boiling over in Argentina leading to comments Ducati likely didn’t take kindly to behind the scenes. To its credit, Ducati has stuck by Bagnaia and is insistent - at least publicly - that he is having to fight just a bit too hard for results he is better than.

What Bagnaia did reveal coming into the Americas GP was that he is missing performance on corner-entry and how much speed he can carry into the apex of turns. If there’s one place not having that is going to hurt you, it’s COTA - a track partially designed by legendary hard braker and 1993 500cc world champion Kevin Schwantz.

Encouragingly, Bagnaia believes he has made a breakthrough with the bike in trying to improve his form under braking. In fact, he says he has “improved a lot” in this area. On top of this, he claims he kept a bit of margin in hand when pushing at the end of second practice, which he says explains why he was last of the Ducati’s in 10th. It's worth noting, though, that he was fortunate that LCR Honda’s Johann Zarco crashed late on in Practice as the Frenchman was on a lap threatening the top 10 and Bagnaia’s place within it.

While his lowly classification placement may have partly been down to him not pushing to his limits, his hopes of being able to get on terms with his team-mate and close the 31-point deficit between them in the standings don’t look brilliant.

The changeable conditions of Friday make genuine analysis on form difficult. But, as the above table shows, at every turn of second practice Marquez was comfortably clear of Bagnaia, his crash not denting his confidence in the slightest. The two samples of data from that table that stand out are the first slick flying laps between the pair and the overall classification.

Low grip conditions on left-handed circuits play right into Marquez’s wheelhouse, as last year’s Aragon GP proved. His first slick lap in Practice, a 2m08.327s, instantly put him top of the pile and was almost seven seconds quicker than what Bagnaia managed. At the end of this phase, the pair were split by 1.611s. And at the chequered flag, 1.530s separated them.

Why this is worth noting is that the threat of rain still hangs over the Americas GP weekend. Anymore precipitation will almost certainly play into Marquez’s favour. But with it also more than likely to remain dry, he heads into Saturday’s FP2 and qualifying in the morning already on the front foot.

Bagnaia may have been working more on his own set-up, but he’s now not got a lot of time to refine that to get himself into the lead battle.

What Pecco Bagnaia must not do in COTA MotoGP round

When you look up the order, there were super strong performances from the VR46 Ducati duo of Fabio Di Giannantonio and Franco Morbidelli to round out the top three, while Gresini rookie Fermin Aldeguer was fast in both conditions on his GP24.

Alex Marquez on the sister Gresini GP24 remains there or thereabouts, as he has done all season so far.

Bagnaia is very capable of getting in amongst this crowd, but as the previous round in Argentina showed he’s still yet to really put Alex Marquez under any duress while he was bested by Morbidelli and not far off being beaten by Di Giannantonio - who, it’s worth reminding, missed all of the pre-season with injury.

Jack Miller has been quick on the Pramac Yamaha and could spring a surprise, while the ever-improving Honda will be one to watch even if its best rider so far - Johann Zarco - has to come through Q1.

Pedro Acosta noted ahead of the weekend that the odd conditions could open the door for KTM to stick its nose up the sharp end of the grid, and there are two currently directly in Q2, with the other being ridden by last year’s COTA winner Maverick Vinales.

At his best so far this season, Bagnaia is a top three rider. But COTA hasn’t really been a happy hunting ground for him of late. Last year’s race ended with him seven seconds off the lead in fifth, though he did have to battle through chatter issues in that particular grand prix. He came away from the third round of 2024 trailing then-championship leader - and eventual title winner - Jorge Martin by 30 points.

With the threat of slipping even further away than that from Marc Marquez at the same stage 12 months later, Bagnaia faces what could be his toughest challenge of the year. If the breakthrough with his GP25 set-up proves genuine, he must not try to override the bike into positions he thinks he should be in as Marquez likely puts himself out of reach once more in 2025.

Coming through the COTA round with the damage to Marquez limited as much as possible and with his bike pointing in the right direction can be considered a major victory for Bagnaia. If not, his title hopes will already start to look unhealthy…