Francesco Bagnaia: “We still have a chance, we will give everything until the very end”

Only twice in the MotoGP era, 2006 and 2015, has a rider leading the world championship standings heading into the season finale not gone on to win the title.

On both those occasions, Valentino Rossi saw the crown snatched away, losing an 8-point lead to Nicky Hayden in 2006 and a 7-point advantage over Jorge Lorenzo in 2015.

This weekend, Rossi’s own VR46 Academy protégée Francesco Bagnaia needs an even bigger upset to deny Jorge Martin of the 2024 crown.

Ducati’s defending double champion starts the Barcelona finale 24 points adrift of the Pramac rider Martin with a maximum of 37 points still in play for the Sprint (12) and Grand Prix (25).

Having won ten grand prix races this year vs three for Martin, Bagnaia would win the title on a tie-break.

But victory for the Martin in the Sprint would still be enough to wrap up the world championship and Bagnaia’s first considerable challenge will be to keep the battle alive until the final day of the season.

“I’m happy with the decision to race the last Grand Prix of the season in Barcelona instead of Valencia,” began Bagnaia.

“What happened is terrible, and we truly hope that the proceeds from this event can provide substantial support to those affected by the floods.

“As for us, we will approach the weekend as usual,” insisted Bagnaia. “We still have a chance, and while it will be difficult, we will give everything until the very end.

“Regardless of the outcome, it’s an honour to once again be in the final race of the season, fighting for the world title. I can’t wait to get back on track!”

Since winning races is no longer enough for Bagnaia, the question of tactics is sure to be a hot talking point, with the prospect of Martin taking the number one plate from Ducati to Aprilia next season adding further spice.

Bagnaia has said he won’t resort to go-slow tactics to bring other riders into play, but it’s been seen before. Jorge Lorenzo famously backed up the field in 2013 to try and overturn Marc Marquez’s 13-point advantage.

On that occasion, Dani Pedrosa played a perfect team-mate role by attacking Lorenzo, forcing him to raise the pace and eventually ride to victory, leaving him just four points short of Marquez.

Team-mates could again play a significant role this weekend, with Bagnaia needing Enea Bastianini to step up and suggesting he could help other riders by offering a tow in practice and qualifying.

The likes of Bastianini, Marc Marquez, Aprilia’s 2024 Barcelona Sprint winner Aleix Espargaro and KTM’s Pedro Acosta are all potential candidates for the podium this weekend.

However, Bastianini has his own duel with Marquez for third in the world championship to think about, while Ducati has limited leverage over The Beast since he is joining KTM next season.

“Returning to Montmelo after the race here in spring gives me a chance to redeem myself,” said Bastianini, who finished out of the points in 18th due to post-race penalty for ignoring a Long Lap and then a Ride Through penalty in May.

“I’ve always been fast at this track, but the long laps I received after my contact with Alex Márquez during the last race definitely affected my performance.

“We’re fourth in the standings, just one point behind Marc Márquez. We will give 100% to secure a spot on the World Championship podium.”

Bastianini aside, Bagnaia can count on his VR46 Academy allies, except, perhaps, Martin’s team-mate Franco Morbidelli.

But the bottom line is that with Bagnaia and Martin often head-and-shoulders clear of the field - as illustrated last time at Sepang - the Italian really needs an upset, or element of unpredictability, which the Barcelona weather might provide.

As a last-minute replacement for the cancelled Valencia event, the autumn temperatures will probably be around half the mid-20s experienced in May’s Catalunya weekend.

As a result, Michelin is offering no less than seven different slick tyre options, while rain remains a risk.

Since there is little point preparing for the final laps on Sunday if the title is already lost on Saturday, it’s also likely that Bagnaia will dedicate more effort to perfecting his time attacks this weekend.

Repeating his Sepang approach of a new soft tyre at the end of FP1 would also keep the pressure on Martin from the start of the showdown.