Permutations: How Jorge Martin can win the 2024 MotoGP title at final round

Jorge Martin has put one hand on the MotoGP championship trophy after extending his points lead over Francesco Bagnaia by seven points, to 24, at the Malaysian Grand Prix.

Martin was given a huge boost in Malaysia when Bagnaia crashed out of the Sprint, while Martin took victory.

Bagnaia responded in the Grand Prix by taking victory, while Martin was second, and Bagnaia now faces a 24-point deficit with one round — and 37 points — still left to go.

Intense flooding in Valencia has seen the final round move from the Circuit Ricardo Tormo to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, although the new round doesn’t yet have an official title.

Martin can win the MotoGP title in the Sprint at the Catalan venue if he ends the half-distance race 26 or more points ahead of Bagnaia.

How Martin can become champion in the Barcelona Sprint

• If Bagnaia is second, Martin must win

• If Bagnaia is third or fourth, Martin must finish no worse than second

• If Bagnaia is fifth, Martin must finish no worse than third

• If Bagnaia is sixth, Martin must finish no worse than fourth

• If Bagnaia is seventh, Martin must finish no worse than fifth

• If Bagnaia is eighth, Martin must finish no worse than sixth

• If Bagnaia is ninth, Martin must finish no worse than seventh

• If Bagnaia is 10th, Martin must finish no worse than eighth

Should the championship be won in the Barcelona Sprint, it would mark Martin’s first title in the premier class and his first since the 2018 Moto3 World Championship.

Further, it would mark the first occasion a title has been decided in a Sprint since the format was introduced in 2023.

It will also be the first time since 2021, the last time Bagnaia was beaten to a title, that the championship is decided before the final race of the season.

Martin will also be the first Spanish rider to win the MotoGP World Championship since Joan Mir won with Suzuki in 2020.

Should Bagnaia do enough to take the title battle to the final race of the season in the Grand Prix at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, it would be the first time in the four-stroke era of the World Championship that three successive championships have been decided at the final round.

The minimum deficit Bagnaia could face to Martin in the Grand Prix would be 12 points, if Martin doesn’t score in the Sprint and Bagnaia wins. In that case, Martin would need to finish at least third if Bagnaia won; if he finished fourth and Bagnaia won, the Italian would take the title on countback having won more Grands Prix in 2024.